Alternative Visions

Alternative Visions- Soft Landing’ Revisited & Previewing 2023 GDP

Whether ‘soft landing’ of the US economy—with inflation assumed to continue to abate and GDP to continue to grow—is in the works is the main topic of today’s show. Explained in depth is how US price index estimates are key to determine whether ‘soft landing’ will occur. Dr. Rasmus explains how the 3 US price indexes (CPI, PCE, GDP Deflator) are basically estimated, and why the lowest inflation estimator, the GDP Deflator, which is used to come up with GDP numbers, artificially boosts real GDP thus making a ‘soft landing’ look more likely. Rasmus also explains how artificial boosts to GDP were made possible by the redefinitions to GDP introduced in 2013 and in effect ever since.  Explained is if the CPI were used to adjust for inflation instead of GDP deflator, and if the questionable 2013 redefinitions are backed out of GDP calculation, 2023 GDP would now be stagnant at best; and if a more accurate CPI were used (with an inflation rate of around 5-6%) GDP 2023 would already be contracting, with a further contraction coming in first half 2024 now that prices for energy and other services are rising again. Rasmus thus argues Soft landing scenarios are exaggerated by the Inflation indexes (especially the GDP deflator) as well as result of past GDP redefinitions. In the last third of today’s show Dr. Rasmus previews some of the content and themes in his latest forthcoming 2024 book, “American Empire in Decline”.

Alternative Visions- 2023 Review + Colorado-Maine Ballots

Today’s show reviews the main economic & political events of 2023. Topics on the Economy include: US GDP & ‘Soft Landing’ talk; Inflation and Jobs trends; the March 2023 regional bank crisis; US Budget >$1T Deficit & $34T National Debt; the June US Debt Ceiling deal in Congress; major union strikes and contract negotiations; Chat-GPT & Artificial Intelligence; the Federal Reserve’s interest rate pause; Russian sanctions; Ukraine War funding; China’s economy and global economic slowdown. Topics on the Political front include: Israel-Hamas War; Ukraine’s Failed Military Offensive; US House Speaker change; Biden’s Impeachment hearings; Colorado and Maine State Ballot denials; Trump’s polling lead over challengers; RFKjr candidacy; AIPAC attack on US college presidents; Taiwan almost war; SCOTUS ethics & decisions; BRICS expansion; Putin’s Speech & Mideast Trip. Today’s show also briefly comments on the implications for US democracy of the Colorado & Maine decisions to deny Trump ballot status. (Next show on January 12 will focus on economic and political predictions for 2024)

Alternative Visions- Has Union Concession Bargaining Ended in 2023? + Why the CPI Underestimates Inflation

Today’s show addresses two important developments of the past year. Dr. Rasmus reviews the major union contract settlements of the past year (Railroad, Teamsters, Longshore, Auto) to determine if the past 44 yrs of union concession bargaining has finally ended in major contract negotiations in the USA. Concession bargaining ‘markers’ like 2-tier wages, in benefits, hiring of temps, ending of COLAs, and other contract provisions are reviewed. Result: Latest Teamsters (UPS) and Auto Workers contracts mark the end of concession bargaining. Not so clear re. railroad workers and writers and actors, however. So mixed picture. But positive trend. The show also dissects the latest CPI inflation report showing continuation of the trend of goods prices decline but services prices stuck at 5-6% for months. Rasmus concludes Fed has decided to ‘live with’ 5%+ services inflation and not raise rates further (which have limited effect on prices in 21^st century in any event). Fed’s decision now resulting in big surge in stock and bond prices and wealth of investors.

Alternative Visions- Why Ukraine Can’t Win the War + November Jobs Numbers

Just released US jobs numbers for November are reviewed in first half of the show. Not much change from October, with services sector jobs still growing and goods sector jobs slightly declining. Both reflect the US economy growth/no growth condition with manufacturing & construction continuing to contract while services continue to expand. Inflation statistics reflect the same, with goods prices falling (especially gasoline & energy) while key services prices continue to rise around 5%. US economy is stuck in same place last 3 months. Second half of the show addresses Ukraine war as Congress to vote on aid for Ukraine. Prediction is it will provide some token aid BUT only if Biden agrees to demands by Republicans for border wall and money. Dr. Rasmus predicts as well the war in Ukraine is over, in military terms. Fighting will continue but Ukraine has effectively lost. Other topics include strategic significance of Putin’s Mideast tour and recent US polls showing only 28% of US households now approve of Biden’s handling of the economy. (Next week: Latest inflation stats and how presidents become multi-millionaires).

Alternative Visions- Ukraine War & Zelensky’s ‘Danny Trejo Grift’

Today’s shows raises the expose of Zelensky government corruption that US mainstream media has been assiduously avoiding. Actor Danny Trejo just spilled the beans on another Zelensky grift. US celebrities who have been trekking to Kiev apparently get paid $150,000 for their photo op with Zelensky, providing they kick back $50K in cash to Zelensky himself (whose wife just bought a $70m property in Cyprus). Rasmus asks if Z get the original $150k per US celebrity visit from the $1B per month the US gives Ukraine to pay for the wages and pensions of all Ukraine government workers? Dr. Rasmus notes the corruption level appears to be rising as Ukraine’s army retreats from multiple war fronts and talk of a coup of the Zelensky government now grows. Dr. Rasmus reviews the state of the war and political instability in Ukraine amid rumors of Ukraine generals talking a deal with their Russian counterparts and restates his prediction the war will be over by this summer.

Alternative Visions- Soft Landing in 2024..Or Deeper Recession?

Today’s show discusses the growing media spin on the US economy that it’s headed for a ‘soft landing’—i.e. no recession as inflation continues to abate. Dr. Rasmus dissects the 3^rd quarter US GDP numbers of 4.9% annual growth rate that is feeding the soft landing hype. The four major elements of GDP are reviewed, showing 3^rd Quarter was an aberration driven by business over-expansion of inventories in expectation of a surge in consumer spending in 4^th quarter that is now not appearing. What’s really happening with real consumer spending and retail sales, adjusted for inflation; real wage incomes; categories of business investment; and US exports in a global economy slowing noticeably. Rasmus explains how nearly all the slowdown in inflation is in the goods sector, and that manufacturing & construction are in a recession since early 2023. The result: the more likely scenario for winter 2023/24 is therefore US GDP will slow sharply and recession in 2024 beyond the goods sector is likely.

Alternative Visions- Why the Fed is RAISING rates, NOT PAUSING! + War Updates

The Fed this past week held off raising interest rates once again. Or did it? Dr. Rasmus explains why the Fed may have paused raising short term rates but it is simultaneously raising long term Fed interest rates (10,30 Treasury bonds). Rasmus explains how the Fed is flooding markets with excess Treasury sales in order to raise funds to cover the US $2T budget deficit, an act driving up long term US Treasury rates. Fed chair Powell faces growing contradictions in monetary policy: higher short term rates destabilize regional banks & real estate markets (commercial & residential), but long term rate hikes undermine Treasury markets. Fed has no alternative, needing to raise more than $1.5T in next 6 months from sale of Treasuries in order to cover the $2T US budget deficit. Contradictions in US fiscal policy (deficits, debt) are thus exacerbating monetary policy & financial markets, Rasmus explains. The ‘spin’ that  Fed policy has produced a ‘soft landing’ of the real economy is next debunked. The show concludes with updates on the Ukraine war, how Russian forces are growing in number while Ukraine’s manpower & weapons fade-as Zelensky quarrels with his generals. In Israel’s war on Hamas, Dr. Rasmus argues 4 US aircraft carriers at and en route to the region represent US planning for potential war with Iran, not simply military support for Israel. A point further suggested by resolutions just passed by the US Congress calling for war with Iran

Alternative Visions- War and US GDP

 The just released preliminary estimates for US third quarter 2023 GDP, showing how the estimated 4.9% annual rate of US growth is actually much lower than reported. Rasmus explains how GDP in 2013 was redefined, boosting its number by more than $500B a year. Also how US low balls the inflation adjustment to GDP to get a higher number. Prospects for GDP in coming 4^th and 1^st Quarter 2024 are forecast at less than 1% a quarter—as  both consumer spending and business investment ‘core’ of GDP slow significantly. (Core GDP in 3^rd quarter only half, 2.5%, of the 4.9% already). The show next discusses the Israel-Hamas war, the strategies of the US and Israel, the massive US military buildup in the region (including 4 aircraft carriers & subs now) and the increasing likelihood of a US-Iran war that the neocons desperately want. Final comments also offered on the status of the US proxy war in Ukraine now that Zelensky has ordered his generals to go on the defensive everywhere, marking the official end of Ukraine’s failed summer offensive.

Alternative Visions- Most Dangerous Time in Decades

The title for today’s show is a direct quote this past week from Chase Bank CEO, Jamie Dimon. It reflects the growing concern being expressed widely about the global and US economy and geopolitical conditions. In another quote the giant shadow bank, Blackrock, told its customers “get into cash”. After a brief update on the UAW strike, today’s show reviews the University of Michigan’s consumer survey, showing household sentiment in the USA is plummeting, perhaps signaling the consumer’s propping up of the US economy is about to end as inflation starts rising again—as the latest CPI and PPI price reports showed last week. The show then focuses on the growing contradictions in US (Fed) monetary policy, now converging with similar crisis and contradictions in US fiscal policy-especially deficits and debt management. Today’s show then concludes with an analysis of the Ukraine War and the shifting US & Ukraine strategies as the latter’s offensive collapsed. The conclusion is the ‘war is over’ and the US/Biden administration seeks a way to freeze it in a 2024 US election cycle.

Alternative Visions- President Jimmy Carter’s True Legacy + Updates on UAW, Writers & Actors Strike

 Latest developments as of 9-30 in the auto workers, writers & actors strikes. Former president Jimmy Carter turns 99 this weekend. No doubt US corporate media has prepared puff piece obituaries, hailing Carter as the most humane and moral president ever. The show today provides the facts and a different picture, however: What were Carter’s real legacies? How Carter paved the way for USA’s disastrous 20 yr middle east wars (2001-21), launched the 4 decades war on unions that inaugurated concession bargaining and union labor’s ‘Great Detour’, and provided the dress rehearsal and economic policy template for Neoliberalism that followed under Reagan.