Dr. Rasmus reviews latest labor department jobs numbers released today and compares them to the more accurate new unemployment claims numbers released yesterday. The various categories of jobless that aren’t included in the monthly jobs numbers and why unemployment benefit recipients are double that of the officially unemployed reported every month by the labor department. The show then focuses on the state of the current negotiations on a stimulus bill in Congress. The elements of the various proposals are described: McConnell’s $519 billion vs. the ‘Bipartisan’ Senate proposal $908 billion introduced last week vs. the Pelosi-Shumer original $3 trillion stimulus of last May (now reduced to $2.2 trillion since August). What’s in each. Why Biden and corporate Democrats are pushing Pelosi-Shumer to ‘capitulate’ to Republican positions (McConnell’s & Bipartisan Senate). Why Biden’s call to take what’s on the bargaining table now and we’ll come back for more after January 21, 2021 is a subterfuge and why there’ll be no ‘second’ stimulus in 2021.
Dr. Rasmus discusses what’s behind the recent so-called ‘rift’ between the Mnuchin Treasury and Powell’s Federal Reserve bank. Why is it that Mnuchin ordered the return of $455 billion unspent stimulus funds passed in March while hundreds of thousands of small businesses are going under, 20-25m workers still unemployed, food lines growing, and rent evictions accelerating? The political reasons behind Mnuchin (and Trump & McConnell) actions to ‘take back’ the money allocated in the last March Cares Act from the Fed. Rasmus uses this event to explain the functions of these two key economic US capitalist institutions—the Treasury and the Fed and to debunk the mainstream economics fiction that central banks like the Fed are ‘independent’ of capitalist bankers and their politicians. Rasmus offers a short history lesson of
Dr. Rasmus explains why the triple crisis in America is intensifying once again. why the US economy is deteriorating. why covid health crisis is worsening. why the US political crisis is deepening as Trump tries to get the electoral college to change votes.
Dr. Rasmus reviews the significant political & economic takeaways 10 days now after the election. Then discusses the four dates in December that amount to milestones for Trump to try to overturn the election. How each offers an opportunity for Trump to reverse, or at least delay, the certification of the election and create more political and economic chaos in the interim. Rasmus briefly also discusses what’s going on with Trump’s firings in his Defense Dept and national intelligence agencies? Is he preparing a foreign policy ‘October Surprise’ in December? A review of key issues in the Supreme Court’s upcoming ACA decision & why tax cuts for the rich is really at its core. The Pfizer vaccine and its possible disappointment. The China-US Trade War deal one year after. The show concludes with comments on an early look at Bidenomics and why it will likely be Obamanomics 2.0 warmed over—and therefore insufficient to stimulate the economy in 2021
Today’s show covers the two topics. In first half hour, yesterday’s US GDP preliminary numbers are debunked. Why the 3rd Qtr net growth is only 2% not 7.4% and why annualized numbers showing 33.1% should be totally disregarded as phony statistical exaggerations. What’s behind the 3rd quarter growth, industry by industry, why it reflects slowing momentum for the economy, not growth, and why the fourth quarter (and late 3rd) indicators reflect a possible negative 4th quarter. Definitely a ‘W-Shape’ trajectory and not at all a V-shape per Trump and apologists. Big factors driving a negative 4th quarter are no fiscal stimulus, resurgence of Covid in worst wave to date over winter, and political instability post November election. Second half of the show addresses the growing evidence of Trump’s plans to refuse to leave office by stopping the mail in ballot vote count in swing states, with help of courts include his 6-3 majority on SCOTUS. The likely scenario is discussed, as the electoral college vote is 244 v. 248
Today’s show starts with an analysis and critique of last night’s 2nd Presidential Debate between Trump & Biden, and why the quality of the debate on both sides signals the decline in the level of ability in candidates the US political elite are now providing voters to choose from as the US ‘Triple Crisis’ (health, economic, political)worsens in the beginning of the 3rd decade of this century. What Trump said and didn’t say; what Biden could have said but didn’t! The non-debate. The show’s second half gives an update on the ‘On Again, Off Again’ fiscal stimulus negotiations, the new unemployment claims numbers reported yesterday, and why fourth quarter US economy will greatly underperform the 3rd quarter. (For more on the stimulus, read check out my latest article ‘A Short History of the ‘On Again, Off Again’ Fiscal Stimulus Negotiations’ on my blog, http://jackrasmus.com, and join me on Twitter for my latest day to day, and hourly, commentaries on the negotiations at @drjackrasmus.)
Dr. Rasmus provides an update on latest status of stimulus negotiations in Congress this past week: How Pelosi refused to fall for Trump-McConnell latest trick. What’s possible next week. Much of today’s show discusses the recent Nobel prize in economics given to two Standford University professors for their contribution to showing how (auction) markets are efficient. Rasmus explains how their view is just another iteration of ‘efficient markets theory’ debunked by the events of 2008-09. Nevertheless, the Nobel group keeps giving awards to pro-free market theories that argue capitalist markets are efficient and therefore superior to government. Is it economic ‘science’ or economic ‘ideology’, supporting the fiction that markets always produce the best prices—and therefore the government should sell off (privatize) public goods (wireless spectrum) using auction markets at a lower price than it might sell otherwise. What are the hallmarks and indicators of ‘economic ideology’ (ideology defined as misrepresentation of reality, facts, & truth)?
Dr. Rasmus discusses the ‘on again, off again’ negotiations on a fiscal stimulus package. Trump’s 5 flip flops this past week, for and against, a stimulus bill. What’s behind the vacillation. Democrats’ positions, as Pelosi-Shumer, deal with trying to negotiate with Trump. Will there be a fiscal stimulus package before the November 3 election? Rasmus recounts the recent history of negotiations for a stimulus since July, when the Democrat-US House ‘Heroes’ bill proposal and the Republican Senate’s ‘Heals’ bill proposal were the starting points, as the economic effects of the March ‘Cares Act’ ran out. How Trump scuttled negotiations in August, what happened in September, and how he scuttled it again last week. Why Trump has reversed positions so many times. Today’s latest rumors of elements of a deal. Why it has a big hill to climb in McConnell’s Senate and why odds are against a deal by November 3. Dr. Rasmus describes the deteriorating economic conditions in the US today in terms of jobs, business closures, bankruptcies, and coming financial defaults. (read Dr. Rasmus’ latest article, ‘Trump Scuttles a Fiscal Stimulus Deal…Again!’ on his blog at jackrasmus.com. Join him for day to day commentary on Twitter at @drjackrasmus)
Dr. Rasmus dissects and analyzes the content (or lack thereof) in the 1st Presidential debate held this past week between Trump and Biden. While media heads focus on the ‘form’ of the debate and Trump’s attempt to brow-beat both his opponent and the moderator, more interesting was the ‘content’. What was missing about America’s worsening triple crisis: health care, economic, climate. The fourth crisis now ripening: political and constitutional instability coming with Nov. 3 election. And what about the roots of financial instability now brewing at the foundation of it all and threatening in 2021? Rasmus opens the show with brief comments and updates on today’s September US jobs report, the current negotiations on an economic stimulus hanging by a thread in Congress, and Trump’s ‘October Surprise’ announcement of infected with Covid yesterday. (Read Dr. Rasmus’s just written blog piece, ‘The 1st Presidential Debate and Worse to Come’ on his blog, at jackrasmus.com.
