Alternative Visions

Alternative Visions -Economic Updates: Corporate Taxes, Amazon Union Vote & Miscellany

 Dr. Rasmus reviews the notable economic events and data of the past week. Included are Treasury Secretary, Yellen, proposes for a minimum global corporate tax for the 20 advanced economies, in the latest effort to stop the corporate manipulation of taxes and ‘race to the bottom’ globally in corporate tax revenues; the IMF’s proposal to raise $650 billion in Special drawing rights (SDRs) in anticipation of more sovereign debt defaults coming in emerging market economies; Larry Summers’ latest defense of corporations by critiquing plans to raise corporate taxes; latest jobs data showing a million new jobless claims every week despite the growing media puffery about the US economy now booming; growing signs of financial fragility globally and looming future defaults in the US from leisure & hospitality to urban office buildings; dangerous new strains of Covid spreading; and the recent union vote at Amazon.

Alternative Visions - Biden’s Infrastructure Plan

today’s show focuses on Biden’s just announced Infrastructure Plan. Called a jobs plan, it will produce few jobs in 2021-22 and have virtually no impact on the near term 2021 economic recovery effort. Estimated by the Wall St. Journal at $2.3T, over 8 yrs., very little will hit the US economy in the much needed early stage of recovery in 2021. At best it will be passed no sooner that 3^rd quarter 2021 and not then if filibuster in Senate is upheld. Composed of two phases, the second will not likely be passed (if at all) until 2022. Combined with the Biden prior Covid 19 Relief bill (American Rescue Plan) which projects less than $1T spending in 2021, the combined two fiscal spending bills (ARP and now American Jobs Plan, aka Infrastructure bill) will provide roughly $1 trillion stimulus to US economy in 2021, as it reopens aggressively in coming months. Dr. Rasmus discusses the outlines of Biden’s Tax plan, designed to cover part of the cost of the two stimulus bills. (see last week’s show for more details on Biden’s tax proposals).

Alternative Visions - Biden’s Tax Plan + Crossroads for American Democracy

Dr. Rasmus provides a first look at President Biden’s Tax proposals, designed to roll back the worst of Trump’s $4T tax cuts in 2018 for businesses and investors. Rasmus describes the 40 year historical tax shift in favor of the 1% wealthiest households, their businesses and their investments—a key hallmark of Neoliberalism policy since 1981.  Biden’s 3-part economic recovery program—the $1.8T recent stimulus, the $2T-$3T infrastructure bill to be announced next week, and the tax proposals to help pay for both—are described in context of a struggling US economy and a global deterioration in Europe and elsewhere of the fight against Covid 19 and another economic downturn in many economies. What’s happening in Europe and the prospects of a third wave of Covid based on new and more dangerous variants from UK, So. Africa, and Brazil. Rasmus introduces the show with commentary on the current, intensifying fight to retain even limited democracy in America—as Republicans launch voter suppression legislation in 43 states and as Democrats offer HR 1 in Congress to ensure absentee and mail in voting. America’s ‘triple crises’ of Covid, a faltering economy, and a declining democracy are not over. Is a new phase in each on the horizon?

Alternative Visions - Deficits, Inflation and Other Mainstream Economic Nonsense

 Now that the Biden $1.9T (actually $1.8T) fiscal stimulus has passed, mainstream economists and media are pumping up the rhetoric it will soon lead to excess inflation and rising interest rates that will endanger the economic recovery. Rasmus debunks the notion that deficits and debt—or ‘too much money chasing too few goods’ cause inflation, as well as related ideological notions of mainstream economics. What has been the actually deficits in 2020-2021 due to the three bouts of economic fiscal stimulus during the pandemic (March, December, and now March again)? What have been the actual causes of the deficits (besides the fiscal stimulus)? What’s the likelihood of inflation in 2021 and beyond and its real causes apart from deficit spending? What are financial markets reacting now so negatively driving up long term Treasury interest rates? And what instability might that lead to?

Alternative Visions - Wall St., Financial Bubbles, & Financial Instability

Wall St., Financial Bubbles, & Financial Instability

February 15, 2021 by jackrasmus

Recently I was asked to explain by Michael Albert and ‘Revolution Z’ media how Wall St. stock markets work, what’s up with the recent Gamestop bubble, what’s financial speculation, what causes financial instability and crises–and how they are all related to, or unrelated to, the real economy. Presented in simple terms, the interview clarifies for laypersons how the current capitalist financial system functions to make investors ever richer, while the rest of the real economy experiences periodic great recessions, wages stagnate and fall, and the quality and quantity of jobs deteriorates.

https://www.patreon.com/posts/47552141

 

Alternative Visions - Economic Red Flags Rising

 Dr. Rasmus discusses the various warning signs in the US economy now emerging, despite the official talk of GDP recovery underway this quarter: the Fed’s warning this week of rising ‘insolvency risk’ and business bankruptcies coming; new claims for jobless benefits rising again and consistently more than 1 million/week since October; the recent retail sales bump as really a warning not good news; financial market bubbles churning as investors chase ever more risky yield in cryptocurrencies and worthless stocks; China’s introduction of its own digital currency; and growing indications of Biden’s ‘bipartisan back-tracking’.

Alternative Visions - Debunking Economists’ (Larry Summers et. al.) Attack on Fiscal Stimulus Bill

What are the arguments of Larry Summers, Oliver Blanchard, and other nonconomists rallying behind Republicans and big capitalists’ trying to reduce Biden’s $1.9T economic stimulus proposals? How bad is the US recovery in January 2021? Rasmus debunks each of the main points being made by Summers & friends and the rosy picture being painted for first quarter 2021. Dr. Rasmus then comments on the current impeachment trial in the US Senate and why it will resolve nothing of the threat to what remains of US democracy in the next two years by the Trump forces and Trump himself.

Alternative Visions - Jobs Down, Stimulus Stalled & Bubbles Up

: Dr. Rasmus reviews the three main developments of the past week: today’s jobs report showing economy not creating sufficient jobs, the Biden fiscal aid stimulus bill stalled in Congress, and financial asset bubbles continuing to grow, including the financial speculators’ internecine war over Gamestop and other assets. What’s in the Labor Dept. jobs report that shows job situation even worse than the headline of 49,000 jobs created in January? What’s behind the Biden-Dems effort to push for the $1.9t stimulus ‘American Rescue Plan’ and why is unconomist, Larry Summers, again trying to get the Dems to spend less (as he did in 2009)? Finally, why are bubbles in stocks once again growing and analysts predicting a 15% market correction coming?

Alternative Visions - Gamestop & the Game That Never Stops

Dr. Rasmus discusses the ‘topic of the week’, the fight between day traders and big institutional investors like Hedge Funds as financial markets reach bubble heights due to trillions of dollars of free money being pumped into investors’ pockets of all kinds in recent years.  The role of destabilizing technology in financial markets behind the financial conflict. The financialization of the US economy as the fundamental change driving the demand for stocks and other financial assets, of which Gamestop is just a tip of the financial iceberg.  Why the conflict is not about the ‘David’ day trader vs. Goliath Hedge Funds. Why players like Robin Hood, Reddit, and WallStBets forum will ultimately do what big shadow bank finance capital want. Rasmus concludes with a brief review of the just released GDP numbers for 2020 showing a -3.5% contraction of the US economy last year and why the first quarter 2021 will continue the trend of slowdown. (for more on Gamestop read Dr. Rasmus’ just published piece: ‘Gamestop—the Game That Never Stops’ on his blog, http://jackrasmus.com )

Alternative Visions - Trump’s Political Legacies

 as a follow up addendum to a prior week’s show on ‘Trump’s Toxic Economic Legacies’, today’s Alternative Visions show discusses Trump’s Political Legacies. At the top of the list is the deep change in political consciousness among all sectors of US society that Trump’s regime—and in particular his last year in office—have generated. Political elites in Washington have been deeply shaken by the events leading up to and during January 6. They now realize the threat to limited US Democracy (and their own safety) is serious and not limited to the mob that attacked the Capitol that day. Key institutions like the police and even military are infected with right wing radical beliefs & intentions; second, right wing radical movements consciousness has changed as well. They now see January 6 as a ‘success’ to be repeated elsewhere later. And John Q. Public realizes US Democracy has always been fragile, that the Electoral College is anti-democratic, and that even the college can be thwarted and overturned by tactics. These changes in consciousness will be enduring. The second Trump political legacy is the radical takeover of the Republican party under Trump and the forthcoming fight over who will run that party—traditional elites or Trump forces. A split in its structure is likely before 2024. The third legacy is the failure of government and institutions in addressing the US Triple Crisis: Covid, Economic, Political. It will be a challenge for Biden and traditional elites to restore the normal functioning of government soon. Fourth, Trump’s legacy means US global hegemon and alliances are in a shambles. Former allies will never return to status quo ante pre-Trump again and will cautiously pursue independent relations with China and other countries. Finally, the fifth political legacy, is Trump’s legitimization and organizing of the radical right forces in America, in and out of Government. That genie will not soon return to its bottle. (For print analyses of these discussions, visit Dr. Rasmus’ blog, http://jackrasmus.com)