Episodes
Friday Feb 24, 2023
Friday Feb 24, 2023
Dr. Rasmus revisits his article of January 2022 in which he predicted reasons why the US wanted Russia to invade Ukraine and why the invasion of February 24, 2022 happened. The show initially discusses the past year’s sanctions on Russia and its economic effects (and lack thereof) on the Russian economy. Economic indicators of the Russian economy (per the independent source, tradingeconomics.com) are reviewed, showing neither Russia’s currency, its oil production, oil exports, manufacturing, employment levels, business confidence, or inflation have been seriously impacted by the sanctions. Why the US may now, in its latest sanctions, be preparing to use ‘secondary sanctions’ on India and other countries to enforce failing primary sanctions. Dr. Rasmus then revisits each of the 10 points of his January 2022 article to verify the 10 reasons: Results indicate the US has ‘succeeded’ in achieving at least 8 of the 10 objectives it sought by luring Russia to invade. (For further analysis see the re-posting of the January 2022 article and a subsequent ‘Revisiting the 10 Reasons..” on Dr. Rasmus’s blog, http://jackrasmus.com this weekend). NEXT WEEK on Alternative Visions: A review of the military and geopolitical objectives
Monday Feb 20, 2023
Alternative Visions - Is Inflation Really Slowing?
Monday Feb 20, 2023
Monday Feb 20, 2023
Dr. Rasmus takes a deep look at last week’s latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation reports. A detailed summary of his view of the various supply forces causing inflation and demand forces. Why inflation remains mostly supply side driven, not demand driven, and why the Fed won’t slow inflation much further despite continuing interest rate hikes in 2023. Supply forces include: global supply chain issues, war and sanctions, global commodity price speculators, widespread price gouging by monopolistic corps in the US, and in general record falling productivity (and rising unit labor costs) for US businesses being passed on to consumers. Dr. Rasmus reviews the US ‘productivity crisis’ driving unit labor costs in particular. The show concludes with recap of statistics on US GDP slowdown after $8T in fiscal monetary stimulus and the causes of US deficits and national debt now at $31T and projected to rise another $12T by end of decade. (NEXT WEEK: the show will be dedicated to reviewing the war in Ukraine and revisiting Dr. Rasmus’s January 2022 article, ‘Ten Reasons Why the US May Want Russia to Invade Ukraine’.
Monday Feb 13, 2023
Monday Feb 13, 2023
this week’s show is dedicating to debunking various claims Biden made in his State of the Union speech last week. Topics include claims of 12 million jobs created, unemployment rate at 50 yr. low, inflation, taxes and national debt. An explanation of Biden’s claims his 3 big investment bills passed last year will soon have a big impact on the economy, specifically the Infrastructure bill, Chip & Science Act, and Inflation Reduction Act. How the three represent a trillion dollar shift in spending from Covid relief social programs to subsidies to corporations to invest. Why austerity in social program spending is now on the agenda, to finance in part an even bigger rise in defense and Ukraine war spending than in 2022. Dr. Rasmus explains how chronic deficits for the past 20 years have been due to $15 trillion in tax cuts and $7T in war spending (not counting Ukraine), driving the national debt from $4T in 2000 to $31.5 trillion today. Rasmus explains why the main target in spending cuts is social security and medicare, despite Biden and Republican claims they won’t cut social security.
Monday Feb 06, 2023
Alternative Visions - Jobs and the Fed
Monday Feb 06, 2023
Monday Feb 06, 2023
The Federal Reserve raised rates again last week. Financial markets interpreted the 0.25 bps raise, the lowest in the past year, as evidence the Fed will stop raising and start lowering rates again by summer 2023. But the Fed has said over and over it is targeting the jobs market for evidence that rate hikes are producing unemployment that will lower wages, consumption and demand and therefore prices. (Even though wages have already fallen in real terms throughout 2022). Then the Friday February 3 jobs numbers came out showing 517,000 jobs ‘created’ in January 2023. So what’s going on? Were there really 517k new jobs? Or, as I’ve been arguing the jobs numbers are corrupted and inaccurate. Today’s Alternative Visions show takes on that question (watch for my further detailed written article out soon and accessible from my blog, jackrasmus.com). If the numbers aren’t accurate, why is the Fed continuing to raise rates? Will the Jan. jobs numbers mean it will raise rates longer and higher?
Tuesday Jan 31, 2023
Alternative Visions - US GDP 2022 Analysis
Tuesday Jan 31, 2023
Tuesday Jan 31, 2023
Dr. Rasmus reviews the details of the just announced advance report on US GDP for 2022 and its 4th quarter. After a contraction throughout the first six months of 2022, the US economy ‘recovered’ at only a 2.9% rate in 4th quarter after a meager 3.2% in third quarter. For the entire year US GDP registered a mere 2.1% ‘average for year’ growth. That’s down from 5.9% from 2021 when the economy reopened from the Covid shutdowns. And both those grossly weak numbers occurred after a combined US fiscal-monetary stimulus of more than $8 trillion, provided by the Biden administration (Covid relief, spending, tax cuts) a more than $4 trillion and another $4 trillion provided by the Federal Reserve central bank. Rasmus breaks down the details of the composition of the 2022 weak 2.1% GDP rise, noting the growth due to excessive business inventory expansion (to decline in 2023), contracting real retail sales at the end of 2022, a continuing housing sector contraction, slowing US exports as the world economy slows, and coming US govt austerity social program spending in 2023.
Monday Jan 23, 2023
Monday Jan 23, 2023
In today’s show Dr. Rasmus describes and discusses the major trends of the past four decades of the era of Neoliberal capitalism—in a recap of his January 14 presentation to the 28th annual Rosa Luxemburg conference held last week in Berlin. Rasmus explains how Neoliberal era global capitalism, which originated in the late 1970s as a solution to the crisis of the 1970s, has entered a crisis period in the wake of the 2007-15 global financial crash and great recession. The key trends discussed include: US and global capitalism never fully recovered from the 2007-15 crash; the Covid crisis exacerbated the economic problems and created fundamental structural changes in the global economy; traditional capitalist fiscal-monetary policy tools have become increasingly ineffective in stabilizing the capitalist economy; financialization of the global economy has intensified contradictions and accelerated income and wealth inequality while slowing real economic growth as well; technological change has accelerated changing economic relations at work that has reduced wage incomes for workers, accelerating precariate, gig, and AI job displacement; both traditional and secondary forms of labor exploitation have intensified; financial fragility of governments, households and corporations has risen; US imperialism has entered a more aggressive and violent stage; and domestic political divisions and instability has intensified in many countries, including USA and Europe in response to all the above. In short, Neoliberalism is failing and a new capitalist restructuring of the global economy has begun in early phases. (Check out Dr. Rasmus’ blog, https://jackrasmus.com later today for a posting of a text version of this discussion)
Friday Jan 20, 2023
Friday Jan 20, 2023
In today’s show Dr. Rasmus describes and discusses the major trends of the past four decades of the era of Neoliberal capitalism—in a recap of his January 14 presentation to the 28th annual Rosa Luxemburg conference held last week in Berlin. Rasmus explains how Neoliberal era global capitalism, which originated in the late 1970s as a solution to the crisis of the 1970s, has entered a crisis period in the wake of the 2007-15 global financial crash and great recession. The key trends discussed include: US and global capitalism never fully recovered from the 2007-15 crash; the Covid crisis exacerbated the economic problems and created fundamental structural changes in the global economy; traditional capitalist fiscal-monetary policy tools have become increasingly ineffective in stabilizing the capitalist economy; financialization of the global economy has intensified contradictions and accelerated income and wealth inequality while slowing real economic growth as well; technological change has accelerated changing economic relations at work that has reduced wage incomes for workers, accelerating precariate, gig, and AI job displacement; both traditional and secondary forms of labor exploitation have intensified; financial fragility of governments, households and corporations has risen; US imperialism has entered a more aggressive and violent stage; and domestic political divisions and instability has intensified in many countries, including USA and Europe in response to all the above. In short, Neoliberalism is failing and a new capitalist restructuring of the global economy has begun in early phases. (Check out Dr. Rasmus’ blog, https://jackrasmus.com later today for a posting of a text version of this discussion)
Monday Jan 09, 2023
Monday Jan 09, 2023
Dr. Rasmus follows up last week’s Alternative Visions show on a review of economic & political events in 2022 with today’s show’s predictions for 2023. Included are what’s next for the USA with regard to inflation, recession, fiscal-monetary and trade policy shifts, and potential for financial instability. And on the political scene what’s likely to occur with the USA’s proxy war in Ukraine, tech trade war with China, the situation with Taiwan, and domestically the super-gridlock likely in Congress. Rasmus then predicts important economic and political developments likely to occur in Europe, the UK, China, Japan, Middle East (Saudi, Iran, Syria, Israel) and Latin America (especially Ecuador-Peru, Argentina and Brazil).
Friday Dec 30, 2022
Alternative Visions - Year End 2022 Review--USA & Global Economy & Politics
Friday Dec 30, 2022
Friday Dec 30, 2022
Today’s show provides a review of the main events and developments for the USA and global economies—as well a review of the major political events of the past year. Included are US, Europe and other economies’ central bank (interest rate hike) policy shifts and their effects; the global currency crises unleashed; USA fiscal policy shift from Covid relief to subsidizing corporate investment Acts (Infrastructure, Chip & Inflation Reduction trio acts); sanctions on Russia & Ukraine; China Covid policy shift; escalating US-Europe-Japan war spending; and the continuing slide into recession in the US & G7 economies. Political analysis focuses on the developments in the Ukraine war; US midterm elections; US attempts to provoke China over Taiwan; and the US January 6 political theater and refusal by Biden administration to indict Trump. (Next week’s show will address Predictions for 2023: Economic and Political. So tune in)
Monday Dec 19, 2022
Monday Dec 19, 2022
This past week’s Federal Reserve latest rate hike forewarns financial market investors in no uncertain terms the Fed is prepared to raise rates further, longer and higher in order to reduce inflation in 2023, even if it means more likely and deeper recession. Dr. Rasmus reviews the statements of Fed chair Powell and debunks the Fed’s forecast for inflation and (GDP) in 2023. Fed plans to raise base interest rates to 5.1% in 2023, reducing CPI prices to around 4% (vs. 7-8% so far) while slowing the real economy to only 0.5% and unemployment of 4.6%for 2023. Rasmus explains why 2023 will witness more than 5.1% rate hikes, a deeper recession than 0.5%, and more unemployment than 4.6%. Fed chair Powell’s latest press conference focus was twofold: 1. Telling investors get ready for rates to go higher and longer, 2) show Fed’s plan to attack wages & reduce spending on core services by generating more layoffs. Rasmus reviews follow on central bank rate hikes in Europe, Japan and explains how rising US dollar and geopolitical policies are responsible for Europe’s even greater inflation and deeper recession.