Alternative Visions

Alternative Visions - US Economy & Global Empire Weakens + The Military Situation in Ukraine

 Dr. Rasmus reviews important news events of this past week: US jobs report, Chase Bank CEO, Jaime Dimon’s letter to shareholders, OPEC announcement of big production cuts, China’s brokering of deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran, expanding trade using China Yuan currency instead of US dollars, and Macron’s visit to China. Following discussion of these events, Dr. Rasmus reviews the military strategies and status of the war in Ukraine during its first year. Where will the announced new spring 2023 military offensives by Ukraine and Russia likely occur? How the historic ‘principles of war’ (concentration of forces, mobility and surprise, reserves, internal lines of supply, etc.) have played—and will continue to play--a role in the war.

Alternative Visions - Artificial Intelligence vs. the Working Class

Today’s show begins with discussion of several reports issued this past week: first, evidence by the Wall St. Journal that the 11m open jobs reported by the US Labor Dept’s ‘JOLT’ statistic may be wrong; second, why widespread media reports that the banking crisis is now stabilized are wrong; and, third, why weekly unemployment benefit claims per a Bloomberg News report represent only 25% of workers actually newly unemployed each week. Dr Rasmus then discusses a fourth report this past week by Goldman Sachs bank research indicating that up to 300 million jobs will be negatively impacted (lost jobs or hours of work reduced) as a result of the accelerating implementation of Artificial Intelligence by businesses. Rasmus explains fundamentally what AI is, its enabling technologies, and how AI will destroy millions of simple decision making jobs by eliminating many occupations or sharply reducing hours of work in those occupations. Rasmus reports 1300 tech experts this past week (including Musk) issued a written warning calling for a moratorium on AI and ChaptGPT. But AI is too profitable and the AI tech train has left the station. The show concludes with discussing how AI is critical for advanced military weaponry and is much of the basis of US attack on China’s tech industry today

Alternataive Visions - The Fed’s Role in the Emerging US Banking Crisis

Dr. Rasmus explains how the Fed is ultimately behind the current banking crisis. Distinguishing between causes of the crisis that are ‘fundamental’, ‘enabling’, and ‘precipitating’, Dr. Rasmus explains how the Fed’s pumping $9T of free money (lowering rates to zero in the process) since 2008 created the recent bubbles in Tech and Cryptos that burst and is now bringing down regional banks exposed and over-invested in those sectors. Fed is the ultimate ‘fundamental’ cause. Rasmus explains the ‘enabling’ and further contributing causes of banks’ mismanagement and government deregulation of the sector. And the Fed once again as the ‘precipitating’ cause as result of its unprecedented rapid rise in interest rates over the past year. How the US banking crisis has contributed in part to the simultaneous collapse of Credit Suisse bank in Europe and what’s happening their in its wake. How the current crisis in US and Europe is both similar and different from the crisis of 2008-10 (and 2010-14 in southern Europe’s banks). Rasmus notes how all this was predicted in his 2017 book, ‘Central Bankers at the End of Their Ropes’ and why it represents a general contradiction and crisis of capitalist monetary policy in the 21^st century. (for print version analyses of the banking crisis and the Fed’s role, check out Dr. Rasmus’s blog, http://jackrasmus.com for posting of recent articles on the crisis and the Fed)

Alternative Visions - From Silicon Valley Bank to Larger Banking Crisis?

 Dr. Rasmus gives an update on US and global banking instability in the wake of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank a week ago this friday. What exactly happened at Silicon Valley Bank and is that process occurring elsewhere? What is the role of the Federal Reserve in causing and precipitating the crisis? Have the efforts of the Fed and big banks to staunch the crisis in the US regional banks in recent days working? Is the Fed solution in the short run the cause of future banking instability in the longer run?  What happened to bank regulation after Dodd-Frank Act? The three indicators of continuing bank instability. What’s happening at Credit Suisse bank in Europe? Similarities and differences with 2008 crisis. What does it all mean for future Fed rate hikes (next week) and Fed strategy to slow inflation? Consequences of the current banking crisis for US real economy and global economy. (Check out Dr. Rasmus’s print article on these topics this weekend at his blog, http://jackrasmus.com)

Alternative Visions - Silicon Valley Bank Collapses—Canary in the Financial Coal Mine?

Dr.Rasmus discusses the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank in California in last 24 hrs and what it means for the Tech sector and potential financial instability.  Stocks & bond mkts plummet in response. Fear of uncertain contagion effects over the weekend. 250 companies with potential asset losses + SVBs largest investor: US Home Loan Bank (yes, believe it or not). What SVB and financial instability means for the Fed’s rate hike policy, as rates get pushed to 6% now. Why Fed won’t continue to hike rates to 6% if financial instability happens. And if so, why Fed rate hikes won’t be sufficient to reduce even Demand inflation. Today’s jobs report shows another 311,000 jobs, making rate hikes more likely. Rasmus shows, however, most jobs are part time service while layoffs in tech, transport, warehouse already rising. Why contradictions in economic policy are intensifying and hard landing recession more likely.

Alternative Visions - Social Security Under Attack—Again! Here Comes Austerity Policy

In today’s show Dr. Rasmus discusses the dimensions of the current attack on the social security system taking shape behind the curtain of the Debt Ceiling negotiations and just before Biden releases his final budget proposals for 2023 next week (listen to our next week’s Alternative Visions show on that subject).  Rasmus describes the main elements of the new cuts to Social Security being proposed by the latest group of Senators: creating a so-called Sovereign Wealth Fund that will invest in private financial markets; raising the payroll tax; and raising the retirement age to 70 starting 2025. The history and evolution of the social security system is described, from 1938 to present and how the key year revisions in 1986 created a massive $trillion SURPLUS in social security by 2000; how that surplus has been depleted since by Bush, Obama and Trump. He 4 funds of social security trust are described and financed (retirement, medicare, medicare advantage, prescription drugs). Why just raising the income limit of $160,200 ‘cap’ would enable social security financing for 75 years more AND increase retirement benefits. Rasmus explains how attacks on social security always occur when politicians shift fiscal spending to Austerity and social program spending cuts which is now occurring. (Next week: Biden’s final budget proposals).

Alternative Visions - Ukraine: Revisiting ’10 Reasons Why the US May Want Russia to Invade Ukraine’ Article, January 2022

Dr. Rasmus revisits his article of January 2022 in which he predicted reasons why the US wanted Russia to invade Ukraine and why the invasion of February 24, 2022 happened. The show initially discusses the past year’s sanctions on Russia and its economic effects (and lack thereof) on the Russian economy. Economic indicators of the Russian economy (per the independent source, tradingeconomics.com) are reviewed, showing neither Russia’s currency, its oil production, oil exports, manufacturing, employment levels, business confidence, or inflation have been seriously impacted by the sanctions.  Why the US may now, in its latest sanctions, be preparing to use ‘secondary sanctions’ on India and other countries to enforce failing primary sanctions.  Dr. Rasmus then revisits each of the 10 points of his January 2022 article to verify the 10 reasons: Results indicate the US has ‘succeeded’ in achieving at least 8 of the 10 objectives it sought by luring Russia to invade. (For further analysis see the re-posting of the January 2022 article and a subsequent ‘Revisiting the 10 Reasons..” on Dr. Rasmus’s blog, http://jackrasmus.com this weekend). NEXT WEEK on Alternative Visions: A review of the military and geopolitical objectives and consequences of the Ukraine War after one year.

Alternative Visions - Ukraine: Revisiting ’10 Reasons Why the US May Want Russia to Invade Ukraine’ Article, January 2022

 Dr. Rasmus revisits his article of January 2022 in which he predicted reasons why the US wanted Russia to invade Ukraine and why the invasion of February 24, 2022 happened. The show initially discusses the past year’s sanctions on Russia and its economic effects (and lack thereof) on the Russian economy. Economic indicators of the Russian economy (per the independent source, tradingeconomics.com) are reviewed, showing neither Russia’s currency, its oil production, oil exports, manufacturing, employment levels, business confidence, or inflation have been seriously impacted by the sanctions.  Why the US may now, in its latest sanctions, be preparing to use ‘secondary sanctions’ on India and other countries to enforce failing primary sanctions.  Dr. Rasmus then revisits each of the 10 points of his January 2022 article to verify the 10 reasons: Results indicate the US has ‘succeeded’ in achieving at least 8 of the 10 objectives it sought by luring Russia to invade. (For further analysis see the re-posting of the January 2022 article and a subsequent ‘Revisiting the 10 Reasons..” on Dr. Rasmus’s blog, http://jackrasmus.com this weekend). NEXT WEEK on Alternative Visions: A review of the military and geopolitical objectives

Alternative Visions - Is Inflation Really Slowing?

 Dr. Rasmus takes a deep look at last week’s latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation reports. A detailed summary of his view of the various supply forces causing inflation and demand forces. Why inflation remains mostly supply side driven, not demand driven, and why the Fed won’t slow inflation much further despite continuing interest rate hikes in 2023. Supply forces include: global supply chain issues, war and sanctions, global commodity price speculators, widespread price gouging by monopolistic corps in the US, and in general record falling productivity (and rising unit labor costs) for US businesses being passed on to consumers. Dr. Rasmus reviews the US ‘productivity crisis’ driving unit labor costs in particular. The show concludes with recap of statistics on US GDP slowdown after $8T in fiscal monetary stimulus and the causes of US deficits and national debt now at $31T and projected to rise another $12T by end of decade. (NEXT WEEK: the show will be dedicated to reviewing the war in Ukraine and revisiting Dr. Rasmus’s January 2022 article, ‘Ten Reasons Why the US May Want Russia to Invade Ukraine’.

Alternative Visions - Fact-Checking & Debunking Biden’s State of the Union Speech

this week’s show is dedicating to debunking various claims Biden made in his State of the Union speech last week. Topics include claims of 12 million jobs created, unemployment rate at 50 yr. low, inflation, taxes and national debt. An explanation of Biden’s claims his 3 big investment bills passed last year will soon have a big impact on the economy, specifically the Infrastructure bill, Chip & Science Act, and Inflation Reduction Act. How the three represent a trillion dollar shift in spending from Covid relief social programs to subsidies to corporations to invest.  Why austerity in social program spending is now on the agenda, to finance in part an even bigger rise in defense and Ukraine war spending than in 2022.  Dr. Rasmus explains how chronic deficits for the past 20 years have been due to $15 trillion in tax cuts and $7T in war spending (not counting Ukraine), driving the national debt from $4T in 2000 to $31.5 trillion today. Rasmus explains why the main target in spending cuts is social security and medicare, despite Biden and Republican claims they won’t cut social security.