Alternative Visions

Alternative Visions- Is the Global Economy Slowing?

 Today’s show looks at the important key economies of the world as a growing number begin to slip into recession: new data shows Japan’s economy has been contracting the past six months. Germany has entered recession. So too has the UK. The Eurozone economy as a whole is stagnant. Global manufacturing has been contracting for some months among the G7 economies. Meanwhile China faces growing problems in its property (construction) sector and with emerging deflation in consumer goods prices as producer prices also continue to fall for the past 16 months.  Rasmus notes China home sales are now 1/6 of their peak at end of 2021 and then explains why deflation is even more serious than inflation. In the US, retail sales have turned negative, manufacturing is stagnant, and housing remains down 40% from its prior peak. At the same time both consumer and producer prices have started to rise once again. Can the US economy reach a ‘soft landing’ when the rest of the world key economies are slowing or in recession? (Next Week: Ukraine War military and political analysis as we enter 3^rd year of war Feb. 25, 2024. Why a larger Russian offensive is imminent)

Alternative Visions- Carlson-Putin Interview

 Dr. Rasmus analyzes the Tucker Carlson-Putin Interview in detail today. What did Putin say about the war, its causes, prospects and future of NATO?

Alternative Visions- How US Media ‘Cherry-Picks’ US Statistics to Report

Today’s show addresses the US media’s practice of reporting the most favorable statistics on jobs, unemployment, inflation, wages, GDP from the mountain of data provided by the US Labor and Commerce departments. Dr. Rasmus gives a deep dive into the statistical reports to show why job gains last month may not be 353,000 but much less; why Biden’s claim of 3.1m jobs created last year may be only a third of that; why inflation is higher than reported; why one US survey says unemployment rate is 3.7% but another table in that same survey indicates 8% unemployment rate; why real wages didn’t rise 4.5% last year for tens of millions of American workers but much less.

Alternative Visions- 2023 US GDP Analysis In Depth

Today’s show is dedicated to dissecting the just released US first report on 2023 GDP by the Commerce Dept. Dr. Rasmus breaks down the various contributing elements to US GDP (Consumption, Business Investment, Government Spending, and Net Exports) to identify where the changes in GDP in 2023 were strongest and weakest.  Explained as well is how the methodology for estimating inflation (GDP deflator price index) serves to low ball price changes and in turn boost the real GDP number of 2.5% for 2023. The methodology behind the GDP deflator is explained, and compared to the CPI (Consumer Price Index) with its higher estimate of inflation. Rasmus explains how changes to definition of GDP a decade ago also artificially boosted real GDP. Consumer spending held up in 2023 due to record credit card spending, drawdowns of savings and a surge in auto buying. Meanwhile, serious negative trends in business spending on equipment and housing construction continued in 2023 offset by a surprise jump in business spending on structures like factories; imports slowed faster than exports, and a sharp increase in 2023 in government spending on defense and state and local government all contributed (along with the low inflation adjustment) to the somewhat unexpected 2.5% GDP rise in 2023. Dr. Rasmus concludes, however, that the weaknesses within GDP do not ensure a ‘soft landing’ in 2024, which forecasts are saying will grow only 1-1.25% with recession in the first half of the year.

Alternative Visions- Soft Landing’ Revisited & Previewing 2023 GDP

Whether ‘soft landing’ of the US economy—with inflation assumed to continue to abate and GDP to continue to grow—is in the works is the main topic of today’s show. Explained in depth is how US price index estimates are key to determine whether ‘soft landing’ will occur. Dr. Rasmus explains how the 3 US price indexes (CPI, PCE, GDP Deflator) are basically estimated, and why the lowest inflation estimator, the GDP Deflator, which is used to come up with GDP numbers, artificially boosts real GDP thus making a ‘soft landing’ look more likely. Rasmus also explains how artificial boosts to GDP were made possible by the redefinitions to GDP introduced in 2013 and in effect ever since.  Explained is if the CPI were used to adjust for inflation instead of GDP deflator, and if the questionable 2013 redefinitions are backed out of GDP calculation, 2023 GDP would now be stagnant at best; and if a more accurate CPI were used (with an inflation rate of around 5-6%) GDP 2023 would already be contracting, with a further contraction coming in first half 2024 now that prices for energy and other services are rising again. Rasmus thus argues Soft landing scenarios are exaggerated by the Inflation indexes (especially the GDP deflator) as well as result of past GDP redefinitions. In the last third of today’s show Dr. Rasmus previews some of the content and themes in his latest forthcoming 2024 book, “American Empire in Decline”.

Alternative Visions- 2023 Review + Colorado-Maine Ballots

Today’s show reviews the main economic & political events of 2023. Topics on the Economy include: US GDP & ‘Soft Landing’ talk; Inflation and Jobs trends; the March 2023 regional bank crisis; US Budget >$1T Deficit & $34T National Debt; the June US Debt Ceiling deal in Congress; major union strikes and contract negotiations; Chat-GPT & Artificial Intelligence; the Federal Reserve’s interest rate pause; Russian sanctions; Ukraine War funding; China’s economy and global economic slowdown. Topics on the Political front include: Israel-Hamas War; Ukraine’s Failed Military Offensive; US House Speaker change; Biden’s Impeachment hearings; Colorado and Maine State Ballot denials; Trump’s polling lead over challengers; RFKjr candidacy; AIPAC attack on US college presidents; Taiwan almost war; SCOTUS ethics & decisions; BRICS expansion; Putin’s Speech & Mideast Trip. Today’s show also briefly comments on the implications for US democracy of the Colorado & Maine decisions to deny Trump ballot status. (Next show on January 12 will focus on economic and political predictions for 2024)

Alternative Visions- Has Union Concession Bargaining Ended in 2023? + Why the CPI Underestimates Inflation

Today’s show addresses two important developments of the past year. Dr. Rasmus reviews the major union contract settlements of the past year (Railroad, Teamsters, Longshore, Auto) to determine if the past 44 yrs of union concession bargaining has finally ended in major contract negotiations in the USA. Concession bargaining ‘markers’ like 2-tier wages, in benefits, hiring of temps, ending of COLAs, and other contract provisions are reviewed. Result: Latest Teamsters (UPS) and Auto Workers contracts mark the end of concession bargaining. Not so clear re. railroad workers and writers and actors, however. So mixed picture. But positive trend. The show also dissects the latest CPI inflation report showing continuation of the trend of goods prices decline but services prices stuck at 5-6% for months. Rasmus concludes Fed has decided to ‘live with’ 5%+ services inflation and not raise rates further (which have limited effect on prices in 21^st century in any event). Fed’s decision now resulting in big surge in stock and bond prices and wealth of investors.

Alternative Visions- Why Ukraine Can’t Win the War + November Jobs Numbers

Just released US jobs numbers for November are reviewed in first half of the show. Not much change from October, with services sector jobs still growing and goods sector jobs slightly declining. Both reflect the US economy growth/no growth condition with manufacturing & construction continuing to contract while services continue to expand. Inflation statistics reflect the same, with goods prices falling (especially gasoline & energy) while key services prices continue to rise around 5%. US economy is stuck in same place last 3 months. Second half of the show addresses Ukraine war as Congress to vote on aid for Ukraine. Prediction is it will provide some token aid BUT only if Biden agrees to demands by Republicans for border wall and money. Dr. Rasmus predicts as well the war in Ukraine is over, in military terms. Fighting will continue but Ukraine has effectively lost. Other topics include strategic significance of Putin’s Mideast tour and recent US polls showing only 28% of US households now approve of Biden’s handling of the economy. (Next week: Latest inflation stats and how presidents become multi-millionaires).

Alternative Visions- Ukraine War & Zelensky’s ‘Danny Trejo Grift’

Today’s shows raises the expose of Zelensky government corruption that US mainstream media has been assiduously avoiding. Actor Danny Trejo just spilled the beans on another Zelensky grift. US celebrities who have been trekking to Kiev apparently get paid $150,000 for their photo op with Zelensky, providing they kick back $50K in cash to Zelensky himself (whose wife just bought a $70m property in Cyprus). Rasmus asks if Z get the original $150k per US celebrity visit from the $1B per month the US gives Ukraine to pay for the wages and pensions of all Ukraine government workers? Dr. Rasmus notes the corruption level appears to be rising as Ukraine’s army retreats from multiple war fronts and talk of a coup of the Zelensky government now grows. Dr. Rasmus reviews the state of the war and political instability in Ukraine amid rumors of Ukraine generals talking a deal with their Russian counterparts and restates his prediction the war will be over by this summer.

Alternative Visions- Soft Landing in 2024..Or Deeper Recession?

Today’s show discusses the growing media spin on the US economy that it’s headed for a ‘soft landing’—i.e. no recession as inflation continues to abate. Dr. Rasmus dissects the 3^rd quarter US GDP numbers of 4.9% annual growth rate that is feeding the soft landing hype. The four major elements of GDP are reviewed, showing 3^rd Quarter was an aberration driven by business over-expansion of inventories in expectation of a surge in consumer spending in 4^th quarter that is now not appearing. What’s really happening with real consumer spending and retail sales, adjusted for inflation; real wage incomes; categories of business investment; and US exports in a global economy slowing noticeably. Rasmus explains how nearly all the slowdown in inflation is in the goods sector, and that manufacturing & construction are in a recession since early 2023. The result: the more likely scenario for winter 2023/24 is therefore US GDP will slow sharply and recession in 2024 beyond the goods sector is likely.