Alternative Visions

Alternative Visions- Ukraine: Political Fallout from Failing Offensive + UAW Strike + Fed Rates & Govt Shutdown

 As Ukraine’s Failed Offensive becomes increasingly obvious, political repercussions are being felt in the US, Ukraine and Europe. Half of UN delegates refuse to show up for Zelensky’s speech; 32 House Reps and 6 Republican Senators go on record they won’t support more Ukraine war aid; Zelensky feuds with Poland over grain shipments & Poland’s president says Poland won’t send more weapons to Ukraine; Zelensky gives interview to Economist magazine threatening Europe with angry Ukrainian refugees; Biden tells Zelensky US will send only a few ATACMS missiles and not now. US Ukraine war policy is clearly about to shift as Biden admin. seeks a freeze in the conflict during 2024 election year as US faces $1.5T deficit for 2023 and rising debt. Dr. Rasmus summarizes the economic and political legacies of the Ukraine war. The show then discusses the latest events in the UAW strike and negotiations, explains why the Fed paused rate hikes despite rising inflation again, and why a govt shutdown later this year is growing increasingly likely this time around as Republican House ‘Freedom Caucus’ slaps down House Speaker McCarthy’s latest attempt to exempt Defense Dept. and War spending from budget cuts.

Alternative Visions- UAW Strike + Latest Inflation Reports

most of today’s show is dedicated to understanding the UAW strike that began at midnight last night.  What are the union’s demands and the Big 3 auto corporations offers. Rasmus explains how the companies are flush with cash, with $250B profits, tax cuts, $80B paid out in shareholders buybacks and dividends, tens of billions $ direct subsidies by Biden to build their EV plants, and 40% raises for CEOs. What happened in 2019 UAW negotiations and why autoworkers’ real earnings have fallen by 19.1% since 2019. Dr. Rasmus explains the history of union concession bargaining since 1979 which began with the Chrysler auto strike that year. How concession bargaining expanded last 40 yrs. Recent union negotiations at UPS (Teamsters), west coast dockworkers (ILWU), airline pilots, last year’s railroad negotiations, and current writers-actors strike (SAG-AFTRA) are reviewed in the context of concession bargaining and Neoliberalism ‘Industrial’ policy since 1979. Dr. Rasmus makes some predictions about a possible eventual settlement deal in the current UAW strike, which is possibly planned by negotiations ‘behind the scene’ by Biden, UAW, and Auto corp CEOs that won’t be reported. Show concludes with report on this past week’s CPI inflation report and why prices are creeping back up again.

Alternative Visions- How Reliable is US Economic Data?

Dr. Rasmus comments on a Wall St. Journal report of Sept. 8 admitting that revisions to US data and reports are showing bigger swings in corrections and occurring more often. The show addresses his oft-stated view that the Covid recession fundamentally impacted labor, product and financial markets in ways that US data and statistical reports have not caught up to yet, thus the more frequent and greater revisions to the data. Rasmus explains how JOLT stats (job openings to unemployment ratio), employment surveys, and inflation stats are growing more inaccurate in the post-Covid era. The show then describes how housing, energy, and food prices have begun to rise again and the reasons why Fed interest rate hikes don’t have as great an impact on lowering demand and therefore prices. The show ends with a return to the topic of labor exploitation begun a few weeks ago, showing how aggregate data of relative shares, CO to worker pay, productivity, and Prof. Saez data on the income and wealth of richest 1% households in US continues to rise after every recession. (Next week: How Classical Economists from Adam Smith to Marx explained labor exploitation and why exploitation has been intensifying once again under Neoliberalism since 1980 and especially after 2008-09 crash).

Alternative Visions - How Biden and Mainstream Media Spin the Jobs and Inflation Reports

Today’s show main theme discusses how the Biden administration and mainstream media are spinning the latest jobs and inflation reports. The official ‘messaging’ by politicians and media alike is that both jobs and inflation are steadily-if slowly-improving. The messaging: the August jobs ‘cooled’ to 187,000; inflation moderated to 3% down from last year’s 9% peak, and wages are rising.  Speaking around the country, Biden claims that jobs, inflation, and rising wages show ‘Bidenomics’ is working. But a closer look at the data since April 2023 shows little progress the past four months: since April 2023 job creation is stuck at around 180,000/mo; services inflation likewise stuck at around 6%; and wages rising mostly for the highest paid 10% of the labor force (and for some at the bottom as minimum wages laws take effect) leaving the ‘great middle’ behind. Dr. Rasmus argues the truth is in the details, not aggregate averages, and shows most of the jobs created last 3 months were 520,000 part time, low paid, service work, of which 321,000 were 2^nd and 3^rd jobs, low paid, with few benefits. At the same time, 311,000 full time jobs have disappeared since April. Similarly since April, services inflation (80% of economy) remains ‘stuck’ at around 6% while wage gains continue to be ‘skewed’ to the top 10% and bottom extremes of the labor force. Bidenomics is thus bypassing the middle class! Rasmus further predicts the Fed will continue to raise interest rates, the US economy slow, US$ rise and exports fall, bank lending continue to decline, housing and manufacturing continue to contract, and consumer spending will slow sharply in 4^th quarter and beyond.

Alternative Visions- Jackson Hole: Why the Fed Must Keep Raising Interest Rates

The show begins with an analysis of the past week of the death of Wagner mercenary forces leader, Prigozhin. The show then moves to the main topic: the forces driving the Fed to continue to raise interest rates; for certain this September but possibly even after. At minimum, US rates will remain high for some time. Chronic high services inflation plus emerging new forces globally that keep pressure on chronic inflation and Fed need to raise rates. Rasmus adds that record Fed Treasury sales will add to that pressure and rate hikes, as the Fed needs to sell ever more Treasuries in order to cover US budget deficits. And add still further the rise of the BRICS and declining demand for US dollars

Alternative Visions- Inflation Reduction Act One Year After + What’s Exploitation?

Dr. Rasmus debunks Biden’s and other Dem party notables’ ( HRC, Reich, Krugman)celebration of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) on its one year anniversary. Why the IRA has had no impact on inflation but is best understood as part of the 2022 trifecta of Biden bills (including Chips Act & Infrastructure Act) that together provided $1.65T in direct subsidies and tax cuts to US corporations. Rasmus next explains the current structure of inflation, now rising again with services inflation (80% of economy) stuck at 6%+ for the past three months. The chronic inflation reflects the growing contradictions of Fed monetary and interest rate policy and why US deficits funding requirements by means of US Treasury securities will continue to drive interest rates higher in coming months. The show next discusses the growing int’l crisis in the Sahel area of Africa, in particular the country, Niger, and what it means for French neo-colonialism and US future intervention. The show concludes with an initial discussion of ‘exploitation’ and why exploitation of American workers has been intensifying ever since 1980. Various statistical measures of exploitation are provided, including forms of ‘secondary’ exploitation of labor as well as primary.

Alternative Visions- Fitch Downgrades the US Government-Causes & Consequences?

Dr. Rasmus discusses in depth the causes and consequences the Fitch Credit Rating Company’s decision this past week to downgrade the US government’s credit worthiness. What’s behind the decision? What are some of the consequences? Rasmus reviews the past 22 yrs of rising US deficits and debt and why deficits continue to rise more than $1 trillion a year, the national debt surpasses $34T now (going to $43T) and the economic implications of annual interest payments on the debt now exceeding $600B/yr (going to $900B). The contradictions are intensifying for US Neoliberal Fiscal Policy as well as Neoliberal Monetary Policy. What Fed rate hikes have had minimal effect on services inflation and now threaten to exacerbate US regional banking and commercial real estate sectors of the economy. How the imminent shift by the BRICS economies toward trading in their own currencies (instead of $) will exacerbate monetary policy contradictions, US inflation and GDP. Dr. Rasmus reviews today’s Jobs Numbers, which show little change in services jobs (and inflation) over the past year. (Next Week: What Is Labor Exploitation and How Has It Intensified Since 1980)

Alternative Visions- Is US Labor’s ‘Great Detour’ About to End? + Biden’s Phony ‘Bidenomics’ Tour

With Teamsters-UPS contract negotiations deadline of end of July approaching, the Writers-Sag-Aftra unions’ strike continuing, and Auto workers about to begin bargaining to reverse past concessions, is union Labor about to rise again? Dr. Rasmus describes the various forces behind US labor’s ‘Great Detour’ that began in the late 1970s and continuing now for more than four decades: offshoring of jobs, free trade deals, deregulation of transport and communications, shift to services, substitution of precariate jobs (part time, temp, gig), ‘WalMart Effect’, pro-company NRLB & court shift, atrophy of minimum wage and wage guarantees, top union leadership dependency on the Democrat party, expanding of open shop and anti-labor legal offensives, etc. What happened with last year’s Railroad Union negotiations. Will new leadership of Teamsters and Auto workers unions and new worker militancy mean the beginning of the end of the ‘Great Detour’ of union labor in America? The show then describes why Biden’s current tour promoting his economic policies are not what they seem. Rasmus describes the truth about jobs, wages, inflation, and GDP today.

Alternative Visions- Unpacking the CPI and PPI Inflation Reports

The mainstream media is now spinning last week’s inflation reports to message that inflation is now under control, therefore the Fed won’t need to raise rates further, and that in turn means a ‘soft landing’ with no recession. Dr. Rasmus dissects both the consumer price index and producer price index reports issued last week. Reports show that ‘goods’ (manufactured things and construction) prices have abated in price, but Services prices (80% of US economy) remain stuck in the 5-6% annual range. In fact, June CPI shows services prices rising more (6.2%) compared to May (5.3%). While some sectors of services are declining (airline,hotels prices) rents remain high. Simultaneously, after falling sharply, energy (gasoline, etc.) prices are rising again as are commodities, housing and utilities. Rasmus explains some of the questionable methods the US Labor Dept uses to dampen actual price hikes—like ‘owners equivalent rent’, ‘hedonic pricing’, outmoded ‘weights’ given certain goods, and by selectively using 14 different ‘base periods’ for different key items in the index. Rasmus concludes, services inflation and price gouging remain the defining conditions of current chronic inflation. And that the Fed can’t raise interest rates higher without further exacerbating the regional banking instability

Alternative Visions- Bidenomics as Neoliberal Policy in Crisis

This past week the Biden administration launched a new PR offensive, touting its package of economic policies as a reversal of ‘trickle down’ economics the past 40 years. Bidenomics is supposed to be a break from the past 4 decades of Neoliberal economic policies. In today’s show Dr. Rasmus debunks the current ‘Bidenomics’ PR offensive, describing how it is a continuation of classical Neoliberal policy (fiscal, monetary, industrial and external) since Reagan. Rasmus defines the essential features of Neoliberal fiscal, monetary, industrial and trade/external policies and then fills in the details of Biden policies showing they are classic Neoliberal. Rasmus argues the ‘Bidenomics’ PR offensive is also classic neoliberal ideology (ideology defined as conscious misrepresentation of fact and reality in the service of special interests by manipulation of language). Summarized, Bidenomics is the continuation of neoliberal ‘trickle down’. Rasmus concludes with an assessment of the 4 dimensions of neoliberal economic policy future and the growing theme on the left that Neoliberalism is in growing crisis. Rasmus agrees 3 of the 4 areas of Neoliberal policy are facing growing contradictions and crisis, with the exception of neoliberal industrial policy (anti-union, anti-strike, wage-benefit compression, privatization, deregulation) remaining strong under the Biden administration. (For an analysis of evolution of Neoliberal policy from late 1970s until 2020, check out Dr. Rasmus’s book “The Scourge of Neoliberalism: US Economic Policy from Reagan to Trump”, Clarity Press, 2020)