Alternative Visions

Alternative Visions - Trump’s Election and Economic Consequences—US and Global - 11.11.16

Jack Rasmus discusses the economics behind why Trump won the election, and the economic legacies of the Obama regime behind why the white working class in the great lakes region—from Pennsylvania to Wisconsin—abandoned the Democrats and voted against the political elites and Clinton. Jack refers listeners to his shows earlier this year and predictions this would happen. (see also articles on his blog, jackrasmus.com). The no-college white working class vote was key, along with lower turnout for Clinton among Latinos, youth, and even African-Americans compared to 2008 and even 2012.  The show then reviews the areas of economic consequences expected from a Trump election, including: booming stock markets, rising bond interest rates, big corporate tax cuts coming quickly, Infrastructure spending, more price gouging by pharmaceutical companies and health insurers, the early dismantling of Obamacare and Dodd-Frank bank regulation acts, likely repeal of alternative energy credits, restoration of the Keystone pipeline project, gutting of the EPA’s funding, suspension of proposed industrial plant emissions, refusal to implement the Paris climate accords, boosted production of gas fracking, pipelines, and coal production, an immediate Federal Reserve rate hike in December and more likely in 2017 now, renewed attacks on social security, surging government deficits and debt, general deregulation of business and across the board repeal of Obama executive orders and passage of anti-Latino immigration legislation. The consequences for the global economy are also considered, with focus on emergency markets currency collapse, capital flight and further recessions, rising US dollar and falling oil prices, China’s currency devaluation, Europe and Japan QE policies, and likely measures addressing free trade including NAFTA, TPP, and TTIP.

 

Alternative Visions - Interview with Jill Stein, Green Party Presidential Candidate - 11.04.16

 Dr. Rasmus interviews Jill Stein, Green Party presidential candidate, discussing the real issues of the presidential election and her Party’s positions and solutions to the deepening political and economic crisis in the USA. Topics addressed include Green party proposals for tax reform. Reversing job destroying NAFTA, TPP, and free trade treaties. What to do about escalating healthcare costs and prescription drug price gouging. How to eliminate student debt and provide free public college education. Solutions to the growing retirement crisis and how to fund doubling of social security benefits and Medicare for All. Who Jill would appoint to the Supreme Court and reverse Citizens United. Her proposals for immigration reform. And Green party positions on preventing US military confrontation with Russia in Syria, East Europe and with China in the south China seas, toward which the US continues to drift.  How claims of ‘lesser evilism’ to vote Democrat to oppose Trump is a dead end and why voting a third party is the only way forward.  

Alternative Visions - ‘Behind the Presidential Debates—What They Reveal for 2017’ - 10.21.16

 Jack steps back and discusses the three presidential debates in a broader context, focusing on what the debates reveal about what is coming in 2017:  i.e. more aggressive US foreign policy action in Syria, against Russia, and in Southeast Asia (Philippines) soon after the election. More attacks on civil liberties by US political elites to silence alternative perspectives like Wikileaks and other media. More internecine conflict within the elite ranks of the two main political parties as they deal with rising popular rebellion against the ‘political class’, on both left and right. Republican and Democrat party elites ‘shoring up’ their rules to avoid Sanders-Trump type internal challenges re-occurring in 2020 and elite efforts to more tightly control their primary nomination processes and conventions. A growth of independent political parties as ‘rebellion against the political class’ moves outside the two party structure. Rising rent, healthcare, and inflation, and continuing wage stagnation for the bottom 90% of the workforce as US recession returns in late 2017. Growing disaffection of the millennials from the political system.  (Next week: interview of Jill Stein of the Green Party and Gary Johnson of Libertarians).

Alternative Visions - Presidential Debates & the US-Russia-Syria Conflict - 10.14.16

 Jack provides a brief overview of important developments in the global economy this past week, focusing on China. Renewed financial bubbles in real estate and rapidly slowing China exports that reflect a slowing global economy are discussed, as is the Asia region economy in general. The ‘canary in the Asian economy goldmine’, Singapore, recorded a -4.1% GDP contraction, as shipping sector indicators reveal a global economy and trade continuing to stagnate.  Most of the show then focuses on the 2^nd presidential debate of last week.  Special attention is given to the comments by Clinton on the Russians—i.e. the declaration of alleged hacking of the Democratic party; the assertion that Russia is behind the recent Wikileaks revelations about Hillary’s ‘dual’ strategy (of saying one thing in closed meetings to business and bankers while another, sometimes opposite, to the general populace in her campaign); and her explicit statement in the debate the US should impose ‘no fly zones’ and commit US special forces to the conflict in Syria.  Is the US sliding toward a direct confrontation with Russia in Syria? Does Hillary’s position represent the US war hawks’ re. Syria? Reading between the lines, the 2^nd presidential debate appears to suggest so.

Alternative Visions - Why the FED Will Soon Raise Rates And What Happens When It Does - 10.07.16

Dr. Rasmus explains why a Federal Reserve interest rate hike is coming very soon. Why central bank monetary policies in US, Europe and Japan have failed miserably to generate real economic growth since 2010, but were always focused on boosting stock, bond and other financial markets.  Now, however, they no longer even stimulate financial assets but are increasingly causing financial instability in pension funds, insurance annuities, bank margins, retirees’ consumption, and will therefore soon be shelved. Anticipating the shift, central banks in Europe and Japan are adjusting their monetary policies in turn.  The likely negative consequences of the US Fed rate shift globally are discussed. A new shift to fiscal infrastructure spending, business tax cuts, and abandonment of austerity fiscal policies are now on the agenda following the US election and in 2017 in Europe and beyond. The show concludes with analysis of the 1^st presidential debate and why Trump, despite a disastrous debate performance may still win critical ‘swing states’ in November.  

Alternative Visions - Deutsche Bank & the Deepening Euro Bank Crisis - 09.30.16

Dr. Jack Rasmus reviews recent developments in the growing instability in Germany’s largest bank, Deutsche Bank, and explains how it is a reflection of a deeper, ongoing crisis in the Euro banking system itself. Parallels of Deutsche Bank—the ‘Goldman-Sachs’ of Germany—with the 2008 crash of US Lehman Brothers investment bank are discussed, with Rasmus predicting the German central bank, Bundesbank, will eventually bail out Deutsche—unlike the US decision in 2008 to let Lehman go under. Also addressed:  how Rasmus’ theoretical work published earlier this year, ‘Systemic Fragility in the Global Economy’, predicted the growing crisis in the Euro banking system, which is now expanding beyond Italy’s banks to Germany and beyond.  How the Deutsche crisis is exacerbating in-fighting between the Bundesbank and the European Central Bank, the ECB, and attacks on ECB chair, Mario Draghi.  The Deutsche-Euro bank crisis is a reflection of the growing awareness of the failure of the ECB and other central banks’ QE and negative rates policies—including the US Federal Reserve—to stimulate the real economy and only boost stock and other financial markets. Jack explains how the Deutsche affair is also a reflection of the failed structure of the Eurozone currency union itself.  The show concludes with brief comments on Saudi Arabia/OPEC’s recent decision to cut oil supplies to raise global prices, how Japan is considering redefining its GDP in order to raise growth on paper, and on the phony debate on taxes during the recent 1^st presidential debates this past week between Clinton and Trump. (For more on Jack’s analysis of the 1^stpresidential debate, read his article at his blog, jackrasmus.com, or go to the PRN website articles archive).

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Alternative Visions - Central Bankers Out of Control - 09.23.16

Today’s show examines and discusses the past week’s major decisions by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, and how they represent growing failure and desperation of central bank monetary policy globally. Bank of Japan promises to keep bond rates at zero for another ten years and to continue to inject money until inflation exceeds 2%. The Federal Reserve forecasts US growth rates through 2019 at a mere 1.9% GDP, but predicts unemployment rates will fall to 4.5% even as it raises interest rates (staring December) from 0.5% to 2.6%.  Jack discusses how this contradiction makes no sense and why a US recession is on the agenda in 2017-18 that will blow all those Fed projections. Meanwhile, the Fed creates another fictitious ‘target’—by aligning nominal interest rates with an unknown ‘neutral rate’. Monetary policy is broken and central banks are desperately searching for cover.

 

Alternative Visions - US Incomes And Pre-Election Hype About Economic Recovery - 09.16.16

Jack takes on recent reports from private and government sources this past week that US incomes and the economy are finally recovering. Taking issue with Paul Krugman’s column today, ‘Trickle Up Economics’, hyping the reports, Jack cites and explains contrary data that show the reports and Krugman punditry are questionable. Alternative sources, like the Gallup Poll, show 87% of US population surveyed consider the economy poor or getting worse. Other sources show the doubling of death rates from drugs, suicide, and alcohol for the 25-64 age group—Trump’s target voters in key swing states.  Jack discusses data showing Trump now leads in key swing states, Ohio and Florida, where incomes remain down as much as 10%, as well as in other swing states.  Why Clinton’s campaign is trying to reorient to the 25-64 group and millennials—too little too late.  The show concludes with Jack repeating his prediction of US recession in 2017-18, and predicting post-election policies of more business tax cuts, infrastructure spending, TPP, and Fed interest rate hikes are coming. 

 

(Check out Jack’s recent 2016 books, ‘Looting Greece’ and ‘Systemic Fragility in the Global Economy’, Clarity Press, now available at discounts of 25%-33% from his blog, jackrasmus.com, and website via paypal

Alternative Visions - Why US Workers Are So Angry This Election Cycle - 09.09.16

Media, press, pundits and politicians in the US today keep hyping the US economy as doing well. We hear the US economy is growing nicely, better than other economies at least. Wages are finally rising, and full employment is here.  Jack bunks these and other myths about the US economy on the eve of the US election, and explains why a recession in 2017-18 is increasingly likely.  Explained are why the US GDP growth rate for the first half of 2016 was really only 0.65%, thus nearly stagnant, and real income growth was even lower at 0.1%, or on net stagnant (with wage and income growth for top 10% but declining at median and below 70 million). Jack reviews household consumption growth, the only indicator, keeping the economy from recession, and predicts it is about to falter.  The recent PMI data for manufacturing and services, investment, and auto sales are reviewed. The show concludes with an explanation why wage growth figures are misrepresenting and biased toward upper end and full time employment, benefitting 20 million, but wage stagnation and decline is the fact for 70 million at the median and below. US part time, temp, independent contract, unincorporated self employed, gig economy, and the underground economy now comprise close to half of the US labor force today (60-70 million), up from 33% a decade ago.

Alternative Visions - The New Financial Imperialism How It Works - 09.02.16

 Dr. Jack Rasmus summarizes his just published book this month, ‘Looting Greece: A New Financial Imperialism Emerges’, Clarity Press, Sept. 2016, explaining how debt and credit are becoming new and even more efficient and generalized means by which the more powerful capitalist countries are beginning to extract and transfer wealth from the smaller and more vulnerable.  Jack describes the various techniques and means by which financial measures are used to extract surplus. Greece is a case example of the new imperialism taking shape increasingly globally.  ‘Looting Greece’ is a sequel to Dr. Rasmus’s January 2016 publication, ‘Systemic Fragility in the Global Economy’, which described how the shift to financial investing is slowing down the global economy, and how a new global finance capital elite is increasingly dominating national economies and slowing growth. In the last half of the show, Rasmus reviews the major economic events of the past week, including today’s US job numbers, recent US manufacturing data, the US central bank meeting—and why the Fed will raise interest rates for certain before year end and the impact that will have on a shift to fiscal spending in 2017 andthe US economy’s coming recession in 2017-18 as well as on emerging markets, China and US corporate profits. The show concludes with a commentary on recent IMF and BIS reports on the global economy.