Alternative Visions

Alternative Visions with Jack Rasmus 1-9-26

as a follow up to last show's 'Review of US Economy 2025', this week the show makes predictions where it's headed in 2026. Topics include US GDP for next year, jobs & unemployment, Inflation (CPI & PCE), Fed interest rates (short & long term), continued devaluation of the US dollar and its consequences, direction of financial asset bubbles (gold, silver, crypto, stocks), AI investment & real business spending, government spending (defense vs social programs), budget deficits and national debt, US trade deficit. Impact of global trends (BRICS, sanctions, dollar demand, demand for US Treasuries by China, BRICS, etc. also discussed).

Today's show reviews the performance of the US economy the past year. Topics covered include actual inflation, jobs and likely GDP numbers. Special focus on Trump's 2 main economic initiatives: the $5 trillion tax cut package and Trump tariffs offensive. What have been the actual impact of both thus far? Likely impact in 2026 and beyond? Trump monetary policy browbeating the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. Why neither corporate cost reduction via tax cuts and interest rate cuts will have much effect on the real economy. Contradictions in 21^st century US capitalism that negate stimulative effects of fiscal and monetary policies. Trump record on war spending and social program spending. US Deficits, National Debt, and interest payments 2025. State of AI investing and financial bubbles (tech stocks, gold-silver, cryptos). What's the Trump record on the trade deficit, FDI financial flows, and US dollar.

Today's show focuses on the details and directions for the US Empire revealed in Trump's just released 'National Security Strategy of the USA' document. Is the US Empire re-orienting and restructuring? IF so where? A detailed look and analysis of the document, including its new priority and focus on the Western Hemisphere, a longer term focus on Asia-China-Taiwan, and its criticism of Europe and NATO.  The document confirms Trump economic and geopolitical policies to date, where it's going next three years, and predictions previously made on this radio show.  The show also reviews key economic and political events of the past week. (Notice: next week's show will focus on our annual review of the US & global economy in 2025).

The latest trends in US financial asset bubbles (cryptos, gold-silver, Stocks, AI) and what's happening in the real US economy 4^th quarter: latest consumer spending stats, manufacturing PMIs, GDP forecasts, etc. Trump moves to boost auto and drug company profits. Will the Fed cut rates in December? Real GDP now flat or declining. Show then discusses latest Europe efforts to grab $160B Russian assets to fund Ukraine and why it's failing. Germany's remilitarization and AfD anti-war party's popularization. Latest Trump-Russia negotiations and anti-corruption moves against Zelensky government. Show concludes with US statistics showing US defense spending 2025 in excess of $2 trillion a year and projected to rise another $.5 trillion under Trump by 2027.

Today's show goes into more depth discussion on the topic of financial asset bubbles churning in recent days: Bitcoin, Gold, Stocks, AI as cryptos fall 30% and warnings appear in high places (Dimon, Google, etc) about AI bubble. Hedge funds, auto, credit cards, CRE, private credit, bankruptcies, junk bonds, leveraged loans, etc. in trouble. The show updates latest Ukraine war with Trump's new 28 pt. Plan and Venezuela attack approaches. No invasion a la Vietnam but bombing, regime change, decapitation strikes likely. 

How debt and securitization in US property (CRE, etc) is creating classic 2008 bust potential. Financial markets volatility sign of bubble top? Latest data on US real economy. Venezuela as Trump's 3^rd War. Will US invade? Likely scenarios next 60 days. Venezuela, Russia, China responses? California-Texas gerrymandering as harbinger of more US democracy decline. Mamdani's NY victory

Four events of the past week as the US economy slides to recession: Fed cuts rate 2^nd time; Won't any more until spring 2026. Govt shutdown will go longer. Jobs picture is much worse than it appears as more companies announce mass layoffs. Financial asset bubbles (S&P, gold, cryptos) continue volatility. Trump's token trade deals with China and So. Korea 

 Today's show discusses the Four financial bubbles now growing same time: Gold prices doubled last18 months. Bitcoin up 160%+. S&P, Dow, Nasdaq stock markets up more than 50%. What's driving it? AI, US sanctions, -10% fall of the US dollar, and global economic slowdown. Show explains AI boom and stocks surge due to speculative investing in just 7 largest Tech corps. AI boom now 17X larger than 2000 Internet boom. AI responsible for 80% of stock markets surge. Tech investment 90% of 2025 first half US GDP. Take away AI and US economy, first half 2025 GDP grows only 0.1%.  When will any of the four bubbles burst? Will any one take down the other three?

 Consumer spending = 2/3s US economy but now hitting a wall. After tax wages down 50% in 2025 from 2024. Botton 1/3 households income gains lowest since 2016.  Top 10% households (>$250k/yr) now account for 49% of all consumer spending. Will worsen as unemployment surges, inflation resumes, and $1T in health ACA & Medicaid subsidies for 22.4m ends. Why Fed 0.25% token rate cut won't help. Show next discusses how US presidents become multimillionaires after they leave office. And why Trump & the Empire now shifting tariff and sanctions policies toward India and the BRICS. (Next week: what's the Empire's 'Clean Break' policy shift recommendations about?)