Episodes
Monday Jul 17, 2023
Alternative Visions- Unpacking the CPI and PPI Inflation Reports
Monday Jul 17, 2023
Monday Jul 17, 2023
The mainstream media is now spinning last week’s inflation reports to message that inflation is now under control, therefore the Fed won’t need to raise rates further, and that in turn means a ‘soft landing’ with no recession. Dr. Rasmus dissects both the consumer price index and producer price index reports issued last week. Reports show that ‘goods’ (manufactured things and construction) prices have abated in price, but Services prices (80% of US economy) remain stuck in the 5-6% annual range. In fact, June CPI shows services prices rising more (6.2%) compared to May (5.3%). While some sectors of services are declining (airline,hotels prices) rents remain high. Simultaneously, after falling sharply, energy (gasoline, etc.) prices are rising again as are commodities, housing and utilities. Rasmus explains some of the questionable methods the US Labor Dept uses to dampen actual price hikes—like ‘owners equivalent rent’, ‘hedonic pricing’, outmoded ‘weights’ given certain goods, and by selectively using 14 different ‘base periods’ for different key items in the index. Rasmus concludes, services inflation and price gouging remain the defining conditions of current chronic inflation. And that the Fed can’t raise interest rates higher without further exacerbating the regional banking instability
Monday Jul 10, 2023
Alternative Visions- Bidenomics as Neoliberal Policy in Crisis
Monday Jul 10, 2023
Monday Jul 10, 2023
This past week the Biden administration launched a new PR offensive, touting its package of economic policies as a reversal of ‘trickle down’ economics the past 40 years. Bidenomics is supposed to be a break from the past 4 decades of Neoliberal economic policies. In today’s show Dr. Rasmus debunks the current ‘Bidenomics’ PR offensive, describing how it is a continuation of classical Neoliberal policy (fiscal, monetary, industrial and external) since Reagan. Rasmus defines the essential features of Neoliberal fiscal, monetary, industrial and trade/external policies and then fills in the details of Biden policies showing they are classic Neoliberal. Rasmus argues the ‘Bidenomics’ PR offensive is also classic neoliberal ideology (ideology defined as conscious misrepresentation of fact and reality in the service of special interests by manipulation of language). Summarized, Bidenomics is the continuation of neoliberal ‘trickle down’. Rasmus concludes with an assessment of the 4 dimensions of neoliberal economic policy future and the growing theme on the left that Neoliberalism is in growing crisis. Rasmus agrees 3 of the 4 areas of Neoliberal policy are facing growing contradictions and crisis, with the exception of neoliberal industrial policy (anti-union, anti-strike, wage-benefit compression, privatization, deregulation) remaining strong under the Biden administration. (For an analysis of evolution of Neoliberal policy from late 1970s until 2020, check out Dr. Rasmus’s book “The Scourge of Neoliberalism: US Economic Policy from Reagan to Trump”, Clarity Press, 2020)
Wednesday Jul 05, 2023
Wednesday Jul 05, 2023
Dr. Rasmus examines some facts about Russia’s mercenary Wagner group and its leader, Prighozin, recent mutiny. What are some interesting facts behind the origin of the rebellion not reported by the US mainstream media? The show next addresses in depth the US Supreme Court’s decision to scuttle Biden’s proposed $10-$20K student debt forgiveness proposal. Why 43.5m student debtors can’t get any relief, while 25m small businesses had their $900B in loans under the Covid PPP program expunged by the government and SCOTUS said nothing? The scam called the Student Loan program is discussed in detail and what the SCOTUS decision may mean for all businesses. The show concludes with an examination of whether Biden’s economic policies (aka Bidenomics) represent a crisis for US neoliberal policy in general. Why Biden’s policies are classic neoliberal but also reveal a growing crisis in US neoliberal policy in its monetary, fiscal and trade/dollar variants. (For more on the Prighozin Rebellion, check out Dr. Rasmus’s July 1 blog piece: ‘Prighozin’s Rebellion and the Third Offensive’ at his blog, http://jackrasmus.com
Monday Jun 19, 2023
Monday Jun 19, 2023
What’s behind the Fed’s decision to temporarily halt rate hikes this past week? Then raise rates later again this year? Dr. Rasmus explains the Fed is more concerned in the short run with exacerbating the continuing regional banking crisis than intensifying efforts to slow inflation by raising rates. Fed policy faces a contradiction: raise rates and worsen banking system instability (which the Fed has been offsetting with weekly injections of $95B to stabilize since March), or, not raise interest rates for a while and live with inflation. Rasmus dissects the latest CPI report that shows continuing services sector inflation of 6.3%-6.6%, even as goods inflation has moderated and energy inflation fallen significantly from last year’s highs. Rasmus explains how and why monetary policy faces growing contradictions and is becoming increasingly ‘inefficient’ (i.e. high rates don’t reduce inflation as effectively as in times past, while lowering rates to zero have less effect on stimulating the economy as well. The causes are late neoliberal capitalism’s globalization and financialization. How and why fiscal policy is also facing growing contradictions and why US global economic hegemony is weakening as de-dollarization trends also appear to be gaining momentum.
Monday Jun 12, 2023
Alternative Visions China Inflation and Ukraine Offensive
Monday Jun 12, 2023
Monday Jun 12, 2023
Why is inflation in China virtually zero while it remains chronically high in the US and Europe around 5% and more? Dr. Rasmus describes the forces continuing to keep prices high in the ‘west’ and why China’s economy has little of the same. Supply side issues, corporate price gouging, net exports import prices, currency values, and productivity/unit labor costs—all driving inflation in US—are conspicuously absent in China. The second half of the show addresses the emerging Ukrainian military offensive-the third such during the war. Rasmus explains the dynamics of the first two offensives (Russia in spring 2022 and Ukraine’s in late summer 2022), why both succeeded and failed, and the line up of current forces on both sides in the current third Ukrainian offensive. The importance of concentration of forces (first principal of warfare) in all three offensives and why Ukraine’s latest offensive is likely to fail. Scenarios political and military that could follow. Prediction: negotiations will begin before year end 2023 and it’s likely Zelensky will not be at the table.
Monday Jun 05, 2023
Monday Jun 05, 2023
The May jobs report: why one govt survey shows 339K new jobs and another shows -440k more unemployment. The final version of the Debt Ceiling deal is then reviewed, including last minute Senate additions requiring retroactive student debt interest payments. The Deal as classic Neoliberal capitalist fiscal policy: Pentagon gets $886B (+more in ’24). Discretionary social spending gets cut $2.1T (18%). No tax hikes to pay for projected further $4T deficits & debt (at $35T or more in 2025) Other details of Deal. Rasmus then discusses whether Fed will ‘pause, skip or raise’ interest rates again next meeting. Why US economy ‘goods producing’ sector recession is deepening and will spill over to services by year end 2023.
Tuesday May 30, 2023
Alternative Visions- The Biden-McCarthy Debt Ceiling Deal
Tuesday May 30, 2023
Tuesday May 30, 2023
Dr. Rasmus describes the likely terms of an imminent debt ceiling deal about to be announced this weekend. Reportedly ‘caps’ will be imposed on non-defense social program spending in a two year agreement, while Pentagon spending will rise 11% in the 2024 fiscal budget and an undisclosed further rise in 2025. Some of the possible details are considered: left over Covid funds, student debt cancellation, IRS hiring, work requirements to receive food stamps and Medicaid, fossil fuels licensing and environmental reviews. The NY Times estimates a 18% cut in non-defense spending while Pentagon spending (and higher still total Defense spending) rises. No tax increases to pay for the Pentagon hikes, especially no changes in Trump’s $4.5T 2017 tax cuts. Meanwhile, the CBO estimates failure to reverse the Trump tax cuts will result in a $2.7 trillion boost to the US deficit and debt, now at $31.4 trillion. How real is the US debt default if no deal? And what are some constitutionality issues
Monday May 22, 2023
Alternative Visions - The Debt Ceiling Negotiations Dance
Monday May 22, 2023
Monday May 22, 2023
What’s behind the debt ceiling negotiations? Is June 1 the real deadline date? Dr. Rasmus describes what’s happened to the national debt since 2000 and the causes for its rise from $4T to $31.4T and why interest on the debt is projected to accelerate rapidly to nearly $1T/yr by end of this decade.
How much have the declining share of tax revenue contributed to the annual US budget deficits and thus the national debt? War and Defense spending? Social program spending? Rasmus reviews the various fiscal policies since Covid—3 Covid relief spending plans in 2020-21 followed by 3 business subsidy and investment plans in 2021-22 by Biden.
Why the debt ceiling negotiations are really a cover about how much social program spending to cut in the next federal budget beginning October 1, 2023. Once the debt ceiling is raised again, what’s the prospect for further budget deficits and still more increases in the US national debt?
Monday May 15, 2023
Alternative Visions - Inflation USA: Analysis of Latest CPI and PPI Reports
Monday May 15, 2023
Monday May 15, 2023
In this week’s show Dr. Rasmus takes a ‘deep dive’ into last week’s Consumer and Producer Price Index Reports. Conclusions: Fed record rate hikes have shaken out demand driven causes of inflation but further gains will require even higher interest rate hikes. March CPI at 5% has improved only to 4.9% for April. Inflation reduction has ‘stalled out’. The reduction thus far has impacted energy and some food—i.e. what’s called ‘headline inflation’ but has left ‘core’ inflation (all rest) virtually unchanged at 5.5% for most of past year. Producer prices (that eventually drive consumer prices) are actually rising again. Energy (gasoline) costs and travel costs will again rise in coming months while business unit labor costs will rise due to collapsing US productivity and continuing price gouging by monopolistic corporations (ex: bakery goods) and rents hikes by landlords.
Monday May 08, 2023
Monday May 08, 2023
The show begins with two questions: Will the Fed’s recent interest rate hike last week be its last? Has the Fed failed in its inflation objective, given the continuing rise of prices in the US services sector? Discussion then turns to the latest developments in the regional banking crisis with last week’s failure of First Republic and new banks new experiencing stock price collapse: PacWest Bancorp, Western Alliance and First Horizon. Rasmus explains why the banking crisis is not over and compares the current bank instability with the prior financial crisis in spring-summer 2008. Why the current bank instability may prove even more serious than 2008. The show concludes with a discussion of 2 key reports issued the past week: the US productivity report showing a decline of -2.7% for Jan-March 2023—the 5th consecutive quarter fall and the longest decline since data began in 1948; And last Friday’s most recent jobs report for April showing 253,000 jobs and the unemployment rate continuing to drop. Rasmus explains why the Fed’s major focus on the JOLT (10m unfilled jobs) statistic of 10m is grossly inaccurate with half of which ‘ghost’ jobs