Alternative Visions

Alternative Visions- Shifting Strategies in the Ukraine War

2024 is junctural year in Ukraine war. All three parties’ strategies—US/NATO, Ukraine, Russia—are in flux and changing as fallout from Ukraine’s summer 2023 offensive defeat by Russia continues to reverberate in political terms and as Russia offensive in 2024 emerges. What were the parties respective strategies in 2022, how did they shift in 2023, and how are they about to change again in 2024 are discussed in today’s show. Some likely scenarios by year end 2024 and US elections in November. Has NATO already lost, as more analysts now saying? Will NATO intervene directly before it is? The intro to the show comments on the just released jobs report for March and what the numbers mean for rising US inflation since January, Fed interest rate policy, and the surging US interest on the US $34T debt.

Alternative Visions- Contradictions in US Economy, Policies, and Challenges to the US Global Empire

How the US economy is different today from 1930s and becoming increasing so due to technological change, financialization, and other forces. Why 21^st century US fiscal and monetary policies are increasingly inefficient, ineffective and exacerbating the deficits, US debt, and running up unsustainable interest payments on the debt. Income and Wealth inequality thresholds for the 1% in the US economy today. Challenges faced for the future hegemony of the US empire-not just China, not even BRICS, but entire global South. Role of US $ and other institutions. The new alternative global financial structure coming. Why the US/NATO are losing (have already lost) the Ukraine war. (Dr. Rasmus announces further discussion of these trends is available on his blog, jackrasmus.com, in the Youtube file of the 2 hr. interview he gave this week to the Freethinkers Forum).

Alternative Visions- Russian Mall Attack, Europe’s Economy & US Treasury Market

 Latest on evidence of Moscow’s Mall Terrorist attack. Pros & Cons of evidence to date Ukraine sources’ involvement. Putin’s dire warning re. F-16s. Is Macron’s threat to send troops suspended? Will Europe re-arm and create its own defense industry? Euro economy stagnating vs. USA economy modest growth; Why is USA GDP positive in 2024? US recent Inflation statistics. Is the US Treasuries market growing unstable with $23T bonds issued in 2023? Janet Yellen in China and future of the US dollar.

Alternative Visions- Bad (Good) News Comes in Threes?

Today’s show reviews 3 important speeches of the past week: by Putin, France’s president Macron, and US Senator, Chuck Shumer. Speeches related to the US 3 wars in progress: Ukraine, Israel-Gaza, and Yemen. The Macron speech, an interview, reflected his retreat from the threat to send French-NATO (along with Baltics & Czech) to Ukraine. Deeper, it reflects chaos within EU/NATO as what strategy to implement now that Russia is defeating Ukraine and Trump-US may leave Europe holding the Ukraine war bag. Putin’s reply to Macron was if he (Macron) says there’s no longer any ‘red lines’, then Russia has none as well, including use of nuclear arms if Russia’s existence is threatened. Putin repeated his oblique suggestion again that the ‘west’ may take western Ukraine, which never was part of the Slavic homeland. Third speech by Shumer ‘warned’ Netanyahu was ‘out of control’ and elections should take place in Israel, clearly a message from Biden. All 3 US wars (proxy or direct as in Yemen) all going poorly. Show concludes with another ‘3s’: 3 economic reports in the US (CPI, PPI, and Retail sales) all showing a chronic inflation and emerging real economy slowdown developing.

Alternative Visions- How US Presidents Become Multimillionaires

Following initial comments on the Federal Reserve’s just issued Monetary Report’s warning about bank assets declining in value, this week’s show focuses on the topic of how US Presidents become multimillionaires after leaving office. Corruption by politicians promises to be a major campaign theme on both sides in the election this year. Republicans and Democrats are pushing their stories: Trump’s tax avoidance & Biden’s kickbacks through his son, Hunter Biden’s connections with oligarchs in Ukraine since 2016. (On that latter, the show asks questions about the recent arrest and  ‘indefinite detainment’ of Alex Smirnov, the long time FBI informant who broke the news of the Hunter bribes by Ukrainian oligarchs). The show then identifies the various means by which US presidents typically become 7-figure multimillionaires after they leave office, citing examples from Reagan to Obama. The show concludes with some updates on the Ukraine war, including the EU’s plan to issue Euro-wide bonds to raise $54B for Ukraine and why it may not fly.

Alternative Visions- Ukraine War and the Ghost of Clausewitz

Today’s show is dedicated to a discussion of the current state of the War in Ukraine. The theme is an analysis of the military action and strategies of both sides since the February 2022 start of the war, using the benchmark of the Principles of War famously proposed by Von Clausewitz. Examined are the first Russian offensive of 2022 followed by the Ukrainian offensive later that year. Then the disastrous second Ukrainian offensive of fall 2023 that crashed on the rocks of Russia’s 2023 Defense in depth. What’s happened after fall 2023 to the present, as Russia’s second offensive now, in February 2024, appears to be rolling out in the east, with even bigger offensives emerging in the north and south. How do the Principles of War explain the seesaw military actions of the first two years of the war. The show ends discussing the new political strategies of NATO/US, Russia and Ukraine now in development as well.  (For a published print version of the topics of today’s show go to: https://jackrasmus.com/2024/02/26/ukraine-war-and-the-ghost-of-clausewitz/

Alternative Visions- Is the Global Economy Slowing?

 Today’s show looks at the important key economies of the world as a growing number begin to slip into recession: new data shows Japan’s economy has been contracting the past six months. Germany has entered recession. So too has the UK. The Eurozone economy as a whole is stagnant. Global manufacturing has been contracting for some months among the G7 economies. Meanwhile China faces growing problems in its property (construction) sector and with emerging deflation in consumer goods prices as producer prices also continue to fall for the past 16 months.  Rasmus notes China home sales are now 1/6 of their peak at end of 2021 and then explains why deflation is even more serious than inflation. In the US, retail sales have turned negative, manufacturing is stagnant, and housing remains down 40% from its prior peak. At the same time both consumer and producer prices have started to rise once again. Can the US economy reach a ‘soft landing’ when the rest of the world key economies are slowing or in recession? (Next Week: Ukraine War military and political analysis as we enter 3^rd year of war Feb. 25, 2024. Why a larger Russian offensive is imminent)

Alternative Visions- Carlson-Putin Interview

 Dr. Rasmus analyzes the Tucker Carlson-Putin Interview in detail today. What did Putin say about the war, its causes, prospects and future of NATO?

Alternative Visions- How US Media ‘Cherry-Picks’ US Statistics to Report

Today’s show addresses the US media’s practice of reporting the most favorable statistics on jobs, unemployment, inflation, wages, GDP from the mountain of data provided by the US Labor and Commerce departments. Dr. Rasmus gives a deep dive into the statistical reports to show why job gains last month may not be 353,000 but much less; why Biden’s claim of 3.1m jobs created last year may be only a third of that; why inflation is higher than reported; why one US survey says unemployment rate is 3.7% but another table in that same survey indicates 8% unemployment rate; why real wages didn’t rise 4.5% last year for tens of millions of American workers but much less.

Alternative Visions- 2023 US GDP Analysis In Depth

Today’s show is dedicated to dissecting the just released US first report on 2023 GDP by the Commerce Dept. Dr. Rasmus breaks down the various contributing elements to US GDP (Consumption, Business Investment, Government Spending, and Net Exports) to identify where the changes in GDP in 2023 were strongest and weakest.  Explained as well is how the methodology for estimating inflation (GDP deflator price index) serves to low ball price changes and in turn boost the real GDP number of 2.5% for 2023. The methodology behind the GDP deflator is explained, and compared to the CPI (Consumer Price Index) with its higher estimate of inflation. Rasmus explains how changes to definition of GDP a decade ago also artificially boosted real GDP. Consumer spending held up in 2023 due to record credit card spending, drawdowns of savings and a surge in auto buying. Meanwhile, serious negative trends in business spending on equipment and housing construction continued in 2023 offset by a surprise jump in business spending on structures like factories; imports slowed faster than exports, and a sharp increase in 2023 in government spending on defense and state and local government all contributed (along with the low inflation adjustment) to the somewhat unexpected 2.5% GDP rise in 2023. Dr. Rasmus concludes, however, that the weaknesses within GDP do not ensure a ‘soft landing’ in 2024, which forecasts are saying will grow only 1-1.25% with recession in the first half of the year.