Alternative Visions

Alternative Visions - Afghanistan & the American Imperial Project

Dr. Rasmus discusses his latest published article, ‘Afghanistan & the American Imperial Project’ (see his blog, http://jackrasmus.com, for free copy), explaining the US retreat in Afghanistan has to do with the inability of the US to maintain the costs of empire in the middle east (not just Afghanistan) and simultaneously pay for the cost of the new ‘wars’ looming on the horizon. The wars in the middle east since 2001 have officially cost $6.4T according to the US oversight office, SIGAR. However, that’s only for Afghanistan ($1-$2T) and Iraq. If Syria/Isis, Libya, naval blockade of Iran, US financing Saudi Arabia’s war in Yemen, annual handouts in aid to Egypt & Israel, Somalia, and other ‘operations’ in the region are concerned, the total cost the past 20 years is easily $10 trillion. Rasmus explains the US empire cannot continue funding $500B/yr. on average, while it faces new costs of empire in the new wars: the nextgeneration tech war with China, the cybersecurity war with Russia & others, and the ‘war’ against Nature itself as the US scrambles to deal with climate change. Rasmus further notes the middle east wars have been financed as the US cut taxes by $15 trillion over the 20 yrs. The result of $10T cost as $15T taxes cut is annual budget deficits > $1T and cumulated deficits approaching $28T. Imperial financing of new wars will have to change, as the US shifts focus from the ‘old wars’ of middle east to protect oil (the US no longer needs) to the ‘new wars’ with China, Russia & Nature. The US empire is not imploding. It is restructuring, Rasmus concludes.

 

Alternative Visions - Covid Recession Year One: Who Gained, Who Lost?

Topic of today’s show is who has gained in income terms over the first full year of the Covid induced US recession. Dr. Rasmus looks at the period, 2^nd quarter (April-June) 2020, when the US economy crashed and compares it to most recent quarterly data in 2021 for April-June this year. Those receiving capital incomes and corporations registered record gains: billionaires in US increased their wealth by more than $1 trillion, stock investors enjoyed record levels of price gains, and Fortune 500 corporations recorded record revenue gains of 24.7% over the past year. On the negative side, workers’ wages in net terms fell as more than 35 million were jobless at some point during 2020 and hours of work were cut drastically for many still with jobs. Meanwhile, CEO pay rose 18.9%. Small businesses also did poorly, even as more than $1 trillion in loans and grants were distributed. Nearly 1 million small businesses failed nonetheless and millions more suffered significant income losses despite receiving partial loans. Dr. Rasmus addresses losses experienced by renters as $70 billion or more of forbearance (suspended) is yet to be paid, while landlords continue to block distribution of $47 billion in rental assistance payments. The role of the US Supreme Court in preventing the evictions moratorium is discussed. Student loan forbearance is added to wages, jobs, and renters as those who have not gained over the past year. In short, wage incomes, small businesses, and transfer payment recipients have lost, while investors, big corporations and bankers have gained most.

Alternative Visions - Jobs Report, Infrastructure Status & CBO on US Deficit

Dr. Rasmus dives into the details of the latest US jobs report, showing how the 943,000 new jobs for July is grossly distorted by seasonality adjustment bias by hundreds of thousands over-estimated. Why there are still 17m jobless (not 8.7m) and the unemployment rate is really 10.5%, not 5.4%. In the second half of the show, the current state of Infrastructure spending negotiations is reviewed. Why the Senate version, to be voted on this weekend, is actually the proposals of McConnell and the Republicans from the beginning, with only $500B new money spending on mostly traditional projects of roads, bridges, etc. The show continues with a brief assessment of the Congressional Budget Office’s released estimate of a $3T budget deficit for the current fiscal year, due by far to tax and revenue causes rather than government social program spending. Why we are beginning to witness ‘creeping austerity’ as social program spending funds in the Covid Relief Act of March 2021 are being cut or diverted to other areas. Rasmus concludes the show with a comment why 2021 may be a déjà vu repeat of the policy and economic recovery trajectory of 2020.

Alternative Visions - The Week That Was: US GDP, the Fed Free-Money Money Firehose, & January 6 Sideshow

Dr. Rasmus discusses 4 key events of the past week and how they’re related: (1) What does the preliminary report on 2^nd Quarter 2021 US GDP really indicate? Is it a ‘V’ or just the first half of a ‘W’ given economic indicators showing a slowing of US recovery in the second half 2021. (2) the Federal Reserve meeting showed chair Powell is intent on continuing pumping in $120B of free money to the banks and investors every month for at least another year. Plus keep a second $1T spigot is now permanently open in the Repo Market for stock speculators as well. Why then are banks and investors continuing to get all the free money, while politicians keep cutting the promised fiscal stimulus for working and middle class households and the poor? Why Sanders’ $3.5T Family Bill Dead on Arrival! (3) Rasmus next addresses the phony Infrastructure deal and the Dems latest concessions to McConnell & Republicans in the name of ‘bipartisanship’. (4) How is Biden’s & Dem’s retreat on infrastructure spending—from original $2.3T to $500B now—tied to the launch, six months after, of US House hearings on the January 6 Capitol insurrection?  Why no budget reconciliation & filibuster will mean no electoral reform which will seal the Dems defeat again in 2022. Why the crisis of the decline of US Democracy continues to intensify.

Alternative Visions - Marx’s Economics vs. Contemporary Marxist Economics: Part 3

In this final 3^rd show discussion the differences between what Marx said and what economists today erroneously say he said, Dr. Rasmus addresses two historic issues in Marx’s analysis of capitalism. First is the idea, held by many contemporary economists who consider themselves Marxists, that under capitalism the rate of profit tends to decline over time, leading to ‘crises’ in the form of severe business cycle contractions (recessions, depressions, etc.). Rasmus shows this is incorrect, that Marx’s ‘Falling Rate of Profit’ tendency is a ‘in the long run’ argument and about breakdown of capitalism and not an explanation of short run business cycle ‘crises’ like economic depressions. Rasmus debunks the assumptions in the Falling Rate of Profit tendency argument and explains how 21^st century capitalism cannot be expressed in such terms. The second issue addressed is by critics of Marx, contemporary mainstream economists, who hold that Marx failed to explain how values get transformed into prices in the real world. Thus Marx’s explanation of how exploitation of labor drives capitalist profits is never proven by Marx. Rasmus concludes with commentary why both contemporary Marxists and Mainstreamers fail to understand the financialization of capitalism today as a key source of crises, short run and long.

Alternative Visions - Marx’s Economics vs. Marxist Economics: Part 2

Dr. Rasmus continues the clarification of what Marx really said vs. what contemporary economists (Marxist & Mainstream anti-Marxist) claim as Marx’s economics. Dr. Rasmus explains the 10 conceptual innovations Marx makes on the framework of classical economists before him (Smith, Ricardo, et. al.) to develop his theory of capitalist exploitation that drives the system to a breakdown crisis in the long run. After recapitulating the origins of Marx’s economic analysis and concept innovations on classical economics, begun last week, Dr. Rasmus discusses in Part 2 today the ‘heart’ of volume I of Capital: Marx’s conceptual innovations of Absolute and Relative Surplus Value, which explain how labor is exploited in production, creating a surplus that capitalists appropriate for themselves. Dr. Rasmus provides examples of how both forms of exploitation exist today in 21^st century and are in fact increasing, leading to more exploitation of labor, not less. Plus, how ‘secondary’ forms of exploitation are also becoming more widespread. (Next week: Part 3 on the arguments against Marx by mainstream economists and the weak analyses by those calling themselves contemporary ‘Marxist Economists’) 

Alternative Visions - Marx’s Economics vs. ‘Marxist’ Economics: Part 1

Dr. Rasmus continues his analysis of three great economists (Keynes, Marx, Smith) in today’s first of 3 part series on ‘Marx’s Economics’. What are the origins of Marx’s economic thought? How it critiqued classical economics before him, while borrowing and adapting concepts from the classicals. What were the original contributions of Marx’s economics, conceptually and otherwise. Why Marx is about long run, supply side evolution of capitalist economy and the possibility of eventual breakdown of the system (and not about explaining recessions or depressions). Marx’s great innovations in quantifying the labor theory of value and explaining how and why capitalism evolves fundamentally by means of exploitation of labor. (Next week: contemporary examples why exploitation of labor is intensifying in both absolute and relative terms in the USA over at least the last 40 years. What Marx could not see in the evolution of capitalism in the 21^st century).

Alternative Visions - Part 3: Keynes’ Economics vs. Keynesian

 Dr. Rasmus concludes the 3-part overview of why Keynes’ economics is not ‘Keynesian’, focusing on the sometime radical conclusions and analysis of Keynes that is conveniently ignored by mainstream economics. Recapping the two prior shows explanation, Rasmus addresses Keynes’ views on financial asset markets, financial instability, and the rise and growing influence of professional speculators on the stability of the capitalist system. Why financial markets are often key to capitalist instability (contrary to mainstream economists and ‘Keynesians’ who largely ignore its role).  The show begins with a brief commentary on the recent US Supreme Court decision further again gutting US voting rights and Democracy, giving a new green light of support to expanding voter suppression in the pro-Trump legislators in the red states. Check out Rasmus’ posting of how Neoliberalism is driving Democracy decline, in last chapter of his 2020 book, ‘The Scourge of Neoliberalism’, posted on http://jackrasmus.com blog later today, July 2.)

Alternative Visions - Biden Capitulates on Infrastructure + Part 2: Keynes’ Economics vs. ‘Keynesian’

Dr. Rasmus begins today’s show with an analysis of Biden’s capitulation to McConnell and Republicans yesterday, in which he accepts their proposal for $579B spending on infrastructure instead of his original $2.3T (reduced in steps in recent weeks to $1.7T and then $1.1T). Gone are proposals for spending on child care, elderly, climate, and other non-corporate proposals in Biden’s original bill. Rasmus explains why this ‘deal’ was engineered from the beginning, ultimately in order to ensure Biden’s proposed tax hikes on the wealthy and investors was not necessary. The corporate wing of the Democrat party (with Manchin running ‘point’ as cover for Biden) always wanted this smaller bill. Bipartisanship was the key word always signaling it. Democrat party ‘spin’ to sell the deal now. Why ‘follow on’ bills to restore the cuts are DOA. In second half of the show Dr. Rasmus continues explaining why ‘Keynes’ Economics’ is not Keynesian, and how the latter expunged elements of Keynes’ analysis it found too radical—including critique of financial speculation, capitalist trends toward income inequality and rising unemployment, and why ‘trickle down’ (Keynesian) economics would not work. (For more on Infrastructure deal check out Dr. Rasmus’ blog articles at http://jackrasmus.com).

Alternative Visions - Why Keynes’ Economics is Not ‘Keynesian Economics’

 As promised last week, Dr. Rasmus begins a series of deep analyses of three great economists: Keynes, Marx and Adam Smith, showing how mainstream economics distorts the views of all three. What did they really say and how all were critical of capitalist economy. Today’s first in the series discusses Keynes’ 1935 book, ‘A General Theory of Employment, Interest & Money’, explaining why what is known as ‘Keynesian’ (aka mainstream) economics is not the same as Keynes’ analysis of capitalist economy. Dr. Rasmus explains contemporary mainstream economics cleverly ignores key arguments in Keynes’ original work, creating a bastardized version composed of a mix of pre-Keynes economic ideas—that Keynes himself strongly rejected—and selective, ‘safe’, economic analysis from the General Theory. Why Keynes believed capitalism’s Achilles heel was its tendency to create ever-growing income inequality while failing to deal with chronic unemployment. Why and how Keynes argued against policies that reduced and subsidized business costs (interest rates, wages, tax cuts) as the way to generate investment and growth. And why he foresaw and warned against emerging financial speculation (in stocks and other financial asset markets) becoming the dominant trend in capitalist economies, at the expense of real investment that made things, created jobs, and real incomes. (In subsequent weeks on the show Dr. Rasmus will continue the analysis of Keynes, as well as Marx and Smith—explaining what they really said and not what the media and most economists portray as their views).