Alternative Visions

Alternative Visions - When the Fed Raises Interest Rates…Déjà vu Another 1981-82 Recession?

Dr. Rasmus discusses the widespread narrative in the business media that the Fed will start raising interest rates rapidly next month in March. The argument of mainstream economics is that rate hikes will cool down accelerating inflation (7.5% at latest official report—but really 10% or more).  Rasmus explains Fed rate hikes can only impact Demand but current inflation is a combination of Supply problems and monopoly like corporations price gouging. The latest CPI inflation report is discussed, as well as why Fed rate hikes (now predicted at 7 just in 2022) will likely precipitate a major slowdown of the real US economy in 2023 and possibly provoke a financial instability event thereafter as well. The effect of aggressive Fed rate action will also negatively impact global currency markets, Rasmus argues, as the US dollar rises sharply in value in wake of rate hikes. Emerging market economies therefore will experience the negative impacts as well. So why is there consensus that the Fed is the only solution to inflation at this point? And is there another solution? And why is it being ignored?

Alternative Visions - 10 Reasons Why US May Want Russia to Invade Ukraine

Dr. Rasmus reviews the historical background to the possible military confrontation in the Ukraine, going back to Gorbachev and the breakup of the USSR in the early 1990s; aggressive moves by the US to move NATO into East Europe after promising not to do so; then US efforts to push pro-Russian politicians out of Ukraine in 2006 and the US backed Georgian invasion of South Ossetia, Russia; followed by the US financed coup of 2014 and Russian responses in Crimea and eastern Ukraine and US unilateral withdrawal from the Intermediate Nuclear Weapons (INF) treaty with Russia in 2019 and moving of NATO missile systems into Poland and Romania. Rasmus chronologically describes events since Putin’s public article last summer indicating NATO in Ukraine was a ‘red line’, up to the current maneuvering going on between Biden and Putin since December 2021 and western European leaders’ shuttle diplomacy now underway. Why a Russian invasion is not ‘imminent’, as Biden claims, but is nonetheless still possible. A preview of Dr. Rasmus’ latest article, ’10 Reasons Why the US May Want Russia to Invade Ukraine’ is presented (see his blog, http://jackrasmus.com for the print version)

Alternative Visions - Unpacking US GDP 2021 + Will Fed Interest Rates Halt Inflation?

The Biden administration this week hypes the 2021 US GDP release of 5.7% growth for 2021 as ‘fastest growth in 38 years’. Yet poll after poll show US households very downbeat and negative about the course and future of the US economy. Who’s right? The politicians or consumers?  This show will unpack the just release preliminary figures for US GDP for 2021 and for latest 4^th quarter. Why the hyped 5.7% is not all that relevant for the average consumer and household—whether measured in inflation, jobs, wage incomes or even future GDP growth in 2022-23.  What’s the real rate of inflation and thus actually lower GDP? Why GDP has been over-inflated since 2013. Why sectors of GDP growth in 2021 are set to slow in 2022.  The second major announcement of last week was Fed chair Powell’s declaration that interest rates will rise starting March 2022. Why rate hikes won’t halt inflation, however, and may actually slow the real economy and push financial markets toward more instability.

Alternative Visions - Another Nail in the Coffin of American Democracy

Dr. Rasmus reviews and discusses this past week’s decision by the US Senate to reject approving the Voting Rights Acts, again engineered by the Democrat party’s right wing Senators Manchin & Sinema. What’s the economic motivation behind rejecting the political issue? Rasmus reviews how the vote to reject is part of a 25 year record of chipping away at electoral democracy in the USA, and what are the consequences now for 2022 midterms and 2024 national elections. Possible scenarios for a more clever legal coup in 2024 are reviewed. Rasmus also addresses the foreign policy issue of Russia and Ukraine. Will Russia invade? In which cases and how? Did Biden already secretly agree to an incursion and then put his own foot in his mouth publicly about it. How does Ukraine 2022 compare to the prior invasion of South Ossetia by Georgia at the instigation of the USA

Alternative Visions - Covid’s Impact on US HealthCare System & US Economy

Dr. Rasmus reviews the various dimensions of the two year Covid war on the US Health Care system itself, as well as some of the permanent legacies it’s leaving on the US economy in general.  The man failures of US health policy in relation to the Covid war. Covid’s impact on US and globally involving deaths, hospitalizations and infections. Effects on US labor, product & financial markets, and inflation longer term. Show concludes with commentary on Biden’s collapsing public approval ratings (33%) in light of the increasingly apparent failure to get voting rights passed in the Senate. Why the US political system IS WORKING as it was intended: The role of the Senate and Supreme Court as checks on democracy in the original US Constitution of 1787.

Alternative Visions - 2021 Year in Review: Economy & Politics

Dr. Rasmus provides his review of the major developments and events of 2021 involving both the US/Global economy and US/Global politics. Predictions for 2022 are offered for both as well.

Alternative Visions - The Fed, Inflation, and the End of Fiscal Stimulus

Dr. Rasmus dissects the Federal Reserve Bank’s decision this past week announcing 3 interest rate hikes next year in 2022 and a faster retreat from its Covid era $120 billion per month injection of free money to bankers and investors. In a ‘Monetary Policy 101’ presentation, Rasmus explains how the Fed provides that free money (called ‘liquidity’ in economist parlance) and consequences of it for the real economy and financial market bubbles. Fed traditional bond buying, QE buying, & what’s called ‘Reverse Repos’ are described as channels of liquidity injections by the central bank. Can monetary policy address supply side inflation? Powell’s Fed is compared to Volcker’s in 1980-81. Does the Fed really control interest rates? Why financial markets surged after Powell’s announcement. Rasmus briefly comments on the now dead fiscal policy of the Biden administration. And predicts a slowing US economy in 2022. A concluding comment is offered on why US government economic statistics are distorted by seasonality adjustment that’s broken in the era of Covid—and why current positive growth numbers for manufacturing and GDP are really negative.

Alternative Visions - Inflation Revisited: Unpacking the CPI Report

Today’s show focuses on the latest inflation (CPI) report released, showing inflation still rising by 6.8% (year on year). What are the causes? The show reviews how much may be due to supply issues (global supply chains & domestic supply issues), US consumer Demand, and inflationary expectations and just business price gouging. Looking at the main items of last month’s inflation—food, gasoline, shelter, autos, rents, clothing, etc.—Dr. Rasmus concludes inflation is driven in part by global and domestic supply causes, very little due to consumer demand, and very much due to rising inflationary expectations and widespread business price gouging. The latter is especially evident in rising cost of gasoline and rents and certain domestic food production (meat, milk, cereals, etc.). Global supply chains are responsible for autos, clothing, electronic goods, etc. But the main culprits are food, gas, rents which have little to do with supply or demand. Rasmus explains why the 6.8% is probably underestimated and inflation more than 10% and why it won’t be temporary. The show concludes with an analysis of what’s going on in the Ukraine, with US confrontation with Russia.

Alternative Visions: Artificial Intelligence Tech Revolution & Future of Jobs

Dr. Rasmus explains exactly what Artificial Intelligence is, how it so far has penetrated business and industries, and what are the various forecasts of its potential impact on jobs the rest of this decade and beyond. The ideology, misrepresentations, and falsifications surrounding the concept: will it produce as many jobs as it destroys? Like previous industrial technology revolutions. Or is it different this time? What occupations will be especially hit hard by AI? How will the AI and nextgen technology revolution now underway affect the future of work and employment in the USA? Dr. Rasmus also briefly reviews last month’ job figures reported this morning by the Labor Dept. Is it really a ‘tight labor market’ being messaged by the mainstream media? Also noted is the Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell’s, statement this past week that the Fed will start tapering and raising rates earlier than reported previously. What does that mean for the economic recovery?

Alternative Visions: Dissecting the Infrastructure & Reconciliation Bills + Labor Stirring?

Dr. Rasmus dissects the Infrastructure and Reconciliation bills’ latest content. What’s in and what’s out. Are they really ‘paid for’? Or are they funded by ‘smoke and mirrors’? What’s the actual Deficits impact? Why Biden’s Infrastructure Act signed last Monday is not a stimulus and won’t have much effect on the US economic recovery; why the Reconciliation (Build Back Better bill) just voted on in the US House likely won’t pass and if it does will be gutted to around $500B. The show next discusses the emerging Covid 5^th Wave and its economic impact and why inflation in the US economy has become structural and not transitory. The show concludes with updates on the US-Mexico-Canada meeting, China’s property financial crisis, and recent developments in the US labor movement with the Deere strike settlement, Teamsters voting, and organizing campaigns at Amazon and Starbucks.