Alternative Visions

Alternative Visions - Economic & Political Updates: Sinema, Credit Suisse, Price-Caps, PPI Report & Consumer Debt

Today’s show discusses various political events and economic developments of the past week, in anticipation of next week’s big announcements on the Consumer Price Index report and the Federal Reserve’s latest rate hike decisions. Today’s show discusses Senator Kirsten Sinema’s decision to leave the Democrat party and become independent and what that means for the media’s hype of the Democrats ‘safe’ control of the Senate now with Warnock’s win in Georgia; Biden’s announcement of a sop thrown to labor to save multiemployer pension system (a history of the evolution of pensions in US is offered); Exxon’s announcement of a new $50B stock buyback bonanza for shareholders (+ history of stock buybacks in US since 2010); financial problems at the big EU bank, Credit Suisse and crypto company FTX in US; the politics behind the announcement last week b y the EU/G7/US to impose a maximum $60/barrel on Russian global oil sales. Show concludes with a breakdown of today’s Produce Price Index (PPI) report that shows a record surge in food prices and only moderate slowing of energy prices + a brief review of the Fed’s latest Consumer Credit report showing consumer debt has risen by $500 billion over the pre-Covid 2019 levels.

Alternative Visions - Railroad Strike Settlement & Jobs Numbers

Today’s show begins with an analysis of the just announced passage by Congress and Dems preventing a railroad strike—the 19^th time Congress has intervened to prevent a strike. The pro-corporate actual nature of the Biden administration is made clear by the action. What has happened since September to the present. The show then addresses the Biden-Macron press conference and talk of an emerging UKS-EU trade war over US subsidies to US corporations in the Chip and Inflation Reduction Acts this year. Did Biden cave in to Macron? What does the US tech trade war with China have to do with it all? Finally, Fed chair Powell’s press conference this past week and the jobs numbers out today.

Alternative Visions - Takeaways from US Midterm Election

 Republicans spinning their taking control of the US House. Democrats spinning their wasn’t a red wave. So what’s the significance of the recent midterm Congressional elections? My answer: as the French say, plus ce change, rien ce change’ (Everything changes but nothing changes). In today’s show Dr. Rasmus provides his analysis of the midterm elections, making the central point that there’s been little change in the midterms from 2020 alignments because both parties offered little different to the voters in 2022 than they did in 2020.  Rasmus reviews the proposals and strategies of both parties in some detail, revealing neither offered voters much of any substance. The more important outcome was the DeSantis strong win in Florida, which opens a political pissing match in the Republican party between Trump and DeSantis. Today’s show also comments on the Federal Reserve governor, Esther George, statement today that the Fed might not be able to bring down inflation without recession, admitting more rate hikes coming and 100% certain recession (already here) after the holidays. The show ends with a comment on the implosion of the crypto currency firm, FTX; the possible financial contagion effects; and its Ukraine money laundering connections. (see Dr. Rasmus blog, jackrasmus.com, this weekend for a written article on the recent midterm election).

Alternative Visions - Jobs Report, Fed Rate Hike & Midterm Elections

Dr. Rasmus dissects today’s October Jobs Report release and discusses the consequences, and future direction, of this past week’s latest Federal Reserve rate hike of 75 pts, the 4^th in a row. Will there be another 75 in December? Why do investors consistently ‘bet’ that the Fed will ‘pivot’ and slow its rate hikes? Why has the Fed said it will now focus on its ‘terminal’ (highest) eventual rate? Why are banks and business economists predicting the Fed has to stop raising rates around 5% for its base rate? Dr. Rasmus reiterates his past prediction the Fed can’t raise rates above 5% without precipitating financial instability. Inflation will continue high through the winter after, abating a little at best, as the US economy slides into a deeper recession. The various supply and demand factors driving inflation are noted, as well as new factors entering the inflation equation like the collapse of US productivity and rising business unit labor costs. A prediction is made that the Democrats will lose both houses of Congress (The House by 5-10 seats and Senate by 1-2 Seats). US budget deficits will deteriorate further again in 2023 and the Republican controlled Congress will focus on Austerity policies, impacting mostly social programs.

Alternative Visions - Reflections on the War in Ukraine + US GDP & Global Economic Update

 Dr. Rasmus provides an analysis of US economic trends as US GDP preliminary report shows US economy barely growing in third quarter 2022. What’s happening in Housing, Techs, Consumer spending, Business investment, net exports. Also, the destabilizing effects of current Fed rate hikes (another 75 basis pts coming next week) via the appreciation of the US dollar and corresponding collapse of foreign currencies, including the Euro, pound, yen and China Yuan. The longer term risk, beginning to emerge of dollar rise on global financial system. In the second half hour of the show Dr. Rasmus provides his reflections on the war in Ukraine: military, economic and political. Recent events and comments on US/NATO side and Russia that reveal further drift toward legitimizing and using tactical nuclear weapons.  US-Russian meeting for the first time in 6 months by Austin-Shoigu and US moving advanced nukes into Europe and US 101^st Airborne division on Romania-Ukraine border near Odessa. Rasmus critiques Russia’s initial ‘Special Military Operation’ strategy and why it failed; Ukraine’s summer mobilization and offensive’s results. Putin’s military miscalculations in March and August 2022, why now Russia is mobilizing for war, and why this winter its offensive will dramatically change the conflict. Show concludes with analysis why sanctions on Russia have not succeeded and how US/NATO are drifting toward a direct confrontation with Russia as it mobilizes. (Next week’s show: US Midterm Elections analysis & predictions)

Alternative Visions - Personalities Behind the Crises

 Today’s show takes a different emphasis than in the past by focusing on key personalities and their roles in the growing economic and political crises in the US and world. Dr. Rasmus discusses former UK prime minister, Liz Truss, who was just ousted by the UK’s bond vigilantes and finance capitalists. What did Liz do to get thrown under the bus? Rasmus shows her proposals, for which she was deposed, were not much different than Ronald Reagan’s in 1981-83. Rasmus explains why the UK’s current crisis is actually ‘Made in the USA’. Steve Bannon’s ‘slap on the hand’ court decision and its implications are next discussed. Thereafter Elon Musk’s flirting with a more neutral position in the Ukraine war and the shitstorm against him it’s released. Nouriel Roubini’s declaration we are already in World War 3, followed by Mohammed El-Erian’s raising of the bogeyman that maybe the Fed shouldn’t be so ‘independent’. Rasmus discusses the Fed fake issue of central bank independence, covered in detail in his 2017 book, ‘Central Bankers at the End of Their Ropes: Monetary Policy and the Coming Depression’. (Check out Dr. Rasmus blog, jackrasmus.com, this Sunday for his blogpost and proposals to democratize the Fed). The show comments further on the meeting between US and Russian defense ministers, Austin and Shoigu, Zelensky’s latest rants, Mario Draghi’s declaration of Europe now in recession, and concludes with soon to be Speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy’s, public statements on likely Republican economic and war policies after the Nov. midterm elections. (Next week’s show will address the midterm election issues).

Alternative Visions - Inflation & the Fed: US and Global Consequences

 Dr. Rasmus discusses the CPI report released this past week and identifies the four sections responsible for the chronic inflation: food, energy, shelter and transport. Why the four will continue to keep inflation high over the winter. Why most of CPI is still supply side driven and not demand. Why Fed escalating rate hikes can address only Demand side causes of the inflation and therefore prices will remain in the 4-5% range despite the deeper recession coming 2023. Rasmus discusses why inflation in Europe is worse than the USA and how Fed rate hikes exacerbate inflation there and elsewhere in the rest of the world. The show concludes with discussion of some of the consequences of the Fed rate hikes (in USA and globally), including why rate hikes (Fed and UK) are contributing to growing financial instability in Britain—which is a case example of what may occur later elsewhere in Europe. Comparisons of the 2008 Lehman Brothers crash with the current emerging financial crisis in Britain.

Alternative Visions - Global Capitalist Instability Rising

Dr. Rasmus views consequences of Fed rate hikes continuing on US financial markets, global currencies crisis, and capitalist financial instability. How Fed rate hikes accelerate the dollar and in turn export US inflation to emerging and other advanced offshore economies. Why Fed’s plan is to keep raising rates and there is no ‘pivot’ that US stock markets want to see. Unlike in 2013, the Fed rate hikes will continue despite the negative effects on offshore capitalist economies. Rasmus then discusses the implications of the Saudi-OPEC crude oil production cuts, why the EU’s ‘price cap’ on oil will fail, and what’s possibly behind the recent sabotage of the two Nordstream pipelines. Financial fragility in the case of Euro bank, Credit Suisse, is discussed as is the weak spots in the global real and financial economy. Show concludes with some comments on latest military developments in Ukraine war plus the growing US/Ukraine media campaign (Biden, Zelensky, etc.) messaging the US should use its first strike nuclear doctrine on Russia before it does.

Alternative Visions - Britain’s Economic Crisis: Isolated Event or Harbinger of Things to Come

Dr. Rasmus reviews the intensifying UK economic crisis that escalated this past week. Bond holders and investors provoked a crisis in Britain’s pension funds in response to the new Truss government’s proposals to cut taxes and enact price caps on the accelerating cost of energy for UK households and small businesses.  Capitalist investors don’t want fiscal spending they fear will stimulate the economy and therefore demand and inflation, the latter now double digit and predicted to rise to 17%. They want higher interest rates from the UK bank of England to protect the value of their investments—from rising inflation as well as collapsing British currency, the pound, that has fallen 40%.Rasmus explains this represents growing contradictions between capitalist fiscal-monetary policies and splits within the UK capitalist class. The show further explains and critiques the EU’s latest proposals for sanctions on Russia by creating a G7/EU global oil price cartel, which is doomed to fail if it ever gets implemented. Latest events summarized also in Russia-Ukraine/NATO war.

Alternative Visions 09/23/22- Two Wars: the Fed and Ukraine

Today’s show focuses on two ‘wars’, one military and one economic. Dr. Rasmus discusses the Fed’s latest 75 bps interest rate hike and its consequences, both for inflation, recession, and global currency markets’ instability.  Fed chair, Powell’s, 3 justifications for raising rates are discussed. Rasmus explains Fed rate hikes address Demand side inflation, but not global supply chains or supply problems due to war and sanctions or general corporate price gouging by monopolistic US corps.  Why latest US CPI numbers show a troubling deepening and worsening inflation picture. How Fed rate hikes cause the US dollar appreciation which, in turn, devalues other currencies, including Euro, Pound, Yen and Yuan. How the $ rise in effect exports US inflation and recession to other countries. Second half of show discusses the juncture the Ukraine war has now reached, why Russia’s SMO strategy had failed, and what the announcement by Putin to hold referenda in the four provinces and to mobilize 300,000 more Russian reserves forces for the war means for further escalation of the conflict. The US/NATO war strategy as a ‘Brezinski 2.0’ strategy.