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Dr. Rasmus updates analysis of key economic developments of the past week: the latest events around the US-China trade negotiations and trade war, the estimated effects of the US government shutdown after four weeks with no end in sight, the questionable reliability of government wage statistics in Japan and the US; warnings rising about the stability of Europe banks and their non-performing bank loans; and the Fed’s last rate hike coming in March and how it compares to Fed rate levels that precipitated US recessions in 1990, 2001, 2007. Rasmus discusses at length the continuing internal fight among US factions on the US trade team as negotiations get serious with China over trade. How China has increased its offer just prior to high level meetings set for January 30 in Washington by offering to buy $1 trillion more US goods, allow 51% ownership in China, and pass legislation on January 29 to restrict tech transfer. How US Treasury Secretary, Minuchin, has countered with offers to remove all US tariffs. How China hawks in US will try to scuttle a deal again before March 1 deadlines. Why US and China will eventually come to an agreement, Rasmus predicts, due to rapidly slowing economies of both.

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