Alternative Visions

Alternative Visions- Recessionary Impacts of Trump's Tax-Spending Bill

Mainstream media isn't addressing the potential negative impacts on GDP and growth from Trump's 'Big Beautiful Bill' cutting taxes and spending by trillions of dollars. After reviewing in detail the various provisions of the US House of Representatives final bill, likely changed little by the Senate, today's show explains how the short term impacts of the spending cuts on GDP in 2nd half this year  will likely more than offset the longer term effects of the tax cuts. Review of consumer spending, business investment, govt spending, and net exports impacts on GDP due to the tax and spending provisions of the bill.

Alternative Visions- UPDates: Trump Tax Legislation & Ukraine War Negotiations

 Today's show discusses further details on Trump's 'Big Beautiful Bill' tax proposals. Why target total cost was reduced by Congress from $4.5T to $3.8T. Impacts on wealthies1% and,1% and median income households. Backtracking on 'working class' cuts (tips, overtime, social security income & no tax hikes on carried interest and stock buybacks or corporate tax cut rates, as the tax package begins to look more and more favoring capital incomes and businesses.  Update on Ukraine war negotiations follows. Why Putin won't meet with Trump soon & Russia warns Ukraine if no settlement it will take a 5th province and maybe more. Russia new offensive coming soon. No real negotiations until fall 2025.

 

 

Alternative Visions- Trump Tax Cut Legislation Details

Today's show focuses on pending $4 Trillion Tax Cuts soon acted on by US Congress as part of package of spending/budget.  What's actually in the tax bill? Why is it being reduced to $4T? What about the proposed $1.1T in new working class tax cuts (tips, overtime pay, social security income, interest deduction on new car purchases, cap on state & local taxes, etc.). Will they pass? Why are corporate taxes not on the table, only individual income taxes? Why US has cut taxes by $17 trillion since 2001 despite spending $9 trillion on wars? Why was Obama the biggest corp-business tax cutter $6.1T)? How does Trump propose to cut spending to offset the tax cuts?

 

 

Alternative Visions- Minerals Deal + 1st Quarter US GDP

Today's show dissects the Trump-Zelensky Minerals Deal finally signed, concluding it's not at all like Trump's first deal in March. No US repayment for past US aid in this one and a back door is opened in the deal for US giving Ukraine more weapons again. And why were 3 documents drafted but we only get to know of one?  Second half of show discusses the preliminary US GDP for1st three months of 2025 showing a contraction of the US economy by -0.3%--due mostly to US businesses importing extra goods from offshore as a buffer for potential US tariffs on the horizon + US government spending cuts. Business investment continues rising (mostly inventories), housing and manufacturing contracting, and consumer spending rising at a rate half that of 4th quarter 2024.

Alternative Visions- Trump's Ukraine War 'Kellogg Plan' Collapses

Much of today's show is dedicated to a detailed discussion of the various plans and proposals to start negotiations on ending the Ukraine war: Trump's revised 'Kellogg Plan', Europe's plan to continue the war, Ukraine and Zelensky's refusal to negotiate without Russia leaving all territory and capitulating, and Putin's June 14, 2024 proposals that haven't changed. To summarize: Ukraine, Europe & Trump want ceasefire first then negotiations; Russia wants negotiations to start during which ceasefire will be discussed. First phase of war negotiations now over; Trump's envoy Witkoff meeting with Putin again. Outcome begins start of next phase.  The show also reviews various forecasts whether the US and global economy are heading to recession: IMF, UN, Wall St. Journal, Atlanta Federal Reserve, etc. (For more detail on Ukraine negotiations check out my latest published article: 'Why Trump's Ukraine War 'Kellogg Plan' Collapsed' at http://jackrasmus.com)

Alternative Visions- Tariffs, the Fed and Ukraine Update

Today's show discusses latest events in Trump tariff policies. Not about paying for tax cuts but part of restructuring US empire financing. Why did Trump retreat from pace of tariff implementation? Answer: intense opposition from US multinational corporations to slow down implementation + Japan dumping US Treasuries. Trump launches verbal warning to Powell and Fed to start lowering interest rates, in repeat of 2017 Trump v. Powell conflict (which Trump won). Also, update on Ukraine war negotiations and emerging new Russian offensives. Prediction: US will exit war and Europe assume control. Europe wants to occupy western Ukraine as part of eventual settlement coming this year

 

 

Alternative Visions- A Trump Recession?

We will be talking about the likelihood of a Trump recession or not.

Alternative Visions- Trump’s Domestic Policies Emerge

 Today’s show discusses some of Trump’s emerging domestic policies, with focus on what’s behind shutting down the Education Dept., Trump Tariffs, and the $4.5T tax cuts working its way through Congress. What’s the real impact of Tariffs on inflation and economic growth? What’s Trump’s 3 part tax strategy? Which presidents since 2001 are responsible for cutting US taxes by $17 trillion and how much did each contribute? Why Trump’s overall fiscal policies are classic Neoliberalism. The show also comments on US air attacks on Yemen and Trump-Putin’s phone calls and scenarios for future US-Russia-Ukraine negotiations.

Alternative Visions- US-Ukraine Jeddah Meeting & Ukraine War Negotiations Update

After US & Russia met in Riyadh, US and Ukraine followed up to meet in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia this past week. Today’s show summarizes the positions and demands of the various parties in the 4-way negotiations that are the current discussions re. future peace in Ukraine: USA, Russia, Ukraine, and European Union NATO. What did the USA tell Ukraine in Jeddah? The context of negotiations as military conflict continues, and likely will escalate, in Ukraine. How Russia has cleared out Kursk. Next likely Russian fronts in Sumy and Zaporozhie in the south. Europeans declare $1T new spending on military industry and Germany’s Merz announces $540B more for ‘infrastructure’. Where will EU get the funding? Reports Trump & Putin to talk directly next week (again with no Ukraine or Europeans involved). Meanwhile, US escalates tariff war with Europe. (Next week show: Understanding Trump Tariff Strategy)

Alternative Visions- Trump’s Speech to Congress & Europe’s London Summit

Today’s show analyzes two key events of the past week: an in-depth discussion of Trump’s speech to Congress: EOs, DOGE, Taxes, Tariffs, new defense spending in the pipelines, reaffirmation of Greenland and Panama Canal takeover and further shift in US support for Zelensky and Ukraine. Democrats’ Senator Slotkin weak response indicate Democrats still have no alternative program or strategy. Show then discusses Europe’s emergency conference in London to try to develop a response to US policy on Ukraine and likely withdrawal from Europe. European announcement of $1 trillion development of war/defense industry and continued support for Ukraine. Where will Europe get the money for both?